Study On Prediction Of Construction And Installation Cost In Engineering Projects Based On Grey Theory

With the rapid development of the construction and real estate markets,with the increasing growth of the investment in social fixed assets,the problem of uncontrollable investment in construction projects is becoming more and more serious.Therefore,it is particularly important to predict and control the total investment of a construction project.The total investment in the whole construction project is the largest and the most dynamic one,and the biggest impact on the total investment is the cost of construction and installation.Therefore,if we want to predict and control project investment reasonably,we need to shift the focus of our work to the prediction and control of construction and installation cost.Throughout the life cycle of the whole construction project,the investment decision stage at the early stage of the project plays a crucial role in controlling the total investment and construction cost of the project.But at the beginning of the project construction,the traditional methods,such as index estimation method,proportion estimation method and production capacity index method,are used to predict the construction and installation cost,because of their limitations,which can not meet the rapid and accurate prediction in the early stage of the project.The purpose of this paper is to explore a convenient,efficient and practical method to make reasonable prediction for the cost of construction and installation works.After studying and analyzing a lot of literature,it is found that the grey prediction method is simple,and the requirement of the data quantity is not high and can be predicted quickly.So the grey prediction theory is applied to the prediction of the cost of construction and installation engineering.The grey prediction model in grey theory is a model that extended the past to the future,and makes an analysis and generalization of the known information in the past to the prediction model,thus speculates the future development trend and dynamics of the system.It provides a new method and basis for people's judgement,decision making and planning.Through the analysis of the elements of the construction and installation engineering costs,this paper holds the key elements of the construction,and establishes the prediction model group for the construction and installation costs and the other components respectively,then checks the accuracy of the model,and proves that the grey prediction method is applied to the construction installer by the engineering example.The prediction of process cost is convenient and efficient,and achieves satisfactory prediction results.