Mathematical Modelling And Control Of Schistosomiasis In Hubei Province,China

Schistosomiasis(schistosomiasis)is a parasitic disease that seriously endangers human health.Schistosomiasis is prevalent in 76 countries and regions around the world,with a population of 600 million,200 million people infected and more than millions of people dying of schistosomiasis each year.Among them,in Asia,Schisto-soma japonicum is mainly distributed in China,Japan,Philippines and Indonesia.Because the life history of schistosome is rather complex and involves many hosts,it is difficult to interfere.Therefore,it is very necessary to establish mathematical models for schistosomiasis.In this article,we mainly study the situation of schistosomiasis in Hubei province.The four other provinces of central and eastern China are the provinces of the central and eastern parts of China(including Anhui,Hunan,Jiangsu and Jiangxi),which are located in the lakes and swamps along the river.The high density of population,the large number of cattle and the habitats of large snails are the main characteristics,making the schistosomiasis in these areas exist for a long time and continue to spread.Based on the data of schistosomiasis transmission in Hubei,we have established a mathematical model of the transmission of schistosomi-asis.The model is a system of 6 ordinary differential equations including susceptible,infected,susceptible cattle and oncomelania,infected cattle and Oncomelania.First,we calculated the basic regeneration number R0 and discussed the stability of the disease free equilibrium and the consistent persistence of the disease.Secondly,we found that the infection rate between cattle and oncomelania,the infection rate of Oncomelania snails,the number of Oncomelania snails,the number of Oncomelania snails and the recovery rate of human being affected schistosomiasis by analyzing the sensitivity analysis of the parameters of the basic regeneration number.An impor-tant factor in communication.And we fitted the data of the Hubei schistosomiasis patients and predicted the trend of schistosomiasis.Finally,based on our research,we put forward the following measures to prevent and control schistosomiasis:rais-ing public awareness of the prevention of schistosomiasis;controlling the number of cattle and Oncomclania;reducing Oncomelania and cattle.The rate of contact and the increase of the immune rate of cattle.