Study And Improvemrntof Flood Disasterin Hunan Based On Grey Model Prediction

From ancient to modern times,the development of floods played an important role in all aspects of development,such as social,economic,and ecological.Therefore,it is necessary to look forward to the occurrence of flood disasters and their intensity.Since its introduction in 1982,gray theory has received extensive attention both at home and abroad,and has promoted the growth of grey theory.A large number of researchers have combined the gray model with other prediction theories.In this paper,the Markov chain and the metabolic model are combined and verified,and the combined model shows that the prediction accuracy is improved compared to the single model.The primary section describes the antecedents,research implication,investigation modus,and the overall framework of the research.Chapter 2 briefly explains the causes of floods and disasters.It also introduces the basic knowledge of forecasting,explains the definition,advantages and disadvantages,and application fields of different types of forecasting methods,and refers to the main forecasting methods applied in this paper.The third part discusses the prediction of Hunan Province from 1985 to 2015.The development trend was analyzed,a grey model was established,and the model was tested.Further make better the residual error former and Markov chain model,and explore the exactness of the way of forecasting and ameliorate this pattern.The fourth part first briefly introduces the theory of metabolism.Second,based on the third chapter,using the metabolic gray model for modeling,compare the prediction results,and get the best dimension of the prediction model.In the same way,error tests and model improvements are made to determine the final model.Finally,this article compares the model conclusions in Chapter 3,discriminates the impact of the model's poor on its expected accuracy,and specifies the optimal model.