Sensitivity Analysis Methods Of Multi-attribute Decision Making And Applications In Bidding Management

Sensitivity analysis is an important tache of using models and making quantitative decisions.People will be affected by the uncertain decision parameters when they are devoted to the study on multi-attribute decision making to obtain optimal solutions.Due to the influence of the uncertain problems or parameters on the results of the evaluation,the reliability of evaluation results is often a problem for the decision makers.Sensitivity analysis can reflect the degree of influence on the decision from uncertainty factors,and decision makers can know which parameters are most sensitive,so as to turn their attention more effectively on the key part,which has important practical significance for the multi-attribute decision making.Based on the National Natural Science Foundation of China and the Hubei Electric Power Commission project "Research on the methods and mechanism of bidding and purchasing of electric power materials",the following research work has been carried out:First of all,we discuss the common methods of multi-attribute decision making,and analyze their advantages and disadvantages as well as the future development.Then we research sensitivity measurements based on distance measure and vectorial angle measure,and test the sensitivity of the project by the minimum variation of the local parameters and the vector angle of the global parameters separately.Next,we regard the bidding as multi-attribute decision making under SAW,establish the model and analyze the sensitivity of attribute value,attribute weights and expert weights individually.We put forward the concept and calculation method of minimum variation and sensitivity coefficient when analyzing the sensitivity of attribute value.While introducing the vectorial angle to analyze the sensitivity of attribute weights and expert weights.We give some definitions,geometric representation and solving methods and then discuss the rationality and validity.Combining with the specific bidding example and datas,we verify and compare the methods of sensitivity analysis,then give some suggestions for experts.The methods of sensitivity analysis in this paper extend the range of sensitivity analysis on multi-attribute decision making to a certain degree,which have theoretical significance and application value on research of decision making theory.