Forecast Of Labor Supply And Demand Relationship In Qinghai Province Based On GM(1,1) Gray Model:2019?2030

Through the calculation of statistics,Qinghai Province has began to enter an aging state in 2014.As time goes by,the province's aging degree will continue to deepen,its direct impact is the decline of labor.The decline of labor force will lead to a reduction in labor supply and affect the balance of the labor market,which is not conducive to the development and progress of Qinghai Province.Therefore,the forecast of labor supply and labor demand in Qinghai Province should be well done in advance,the development trend of labor supply and demand situation should be obtained.According to the development trend of future labor supply and demand,countermeasures can be formulated in advance to ensure the stable development of the whole region of Qinghai Province.This paper makes a descriptive analysis of the status quo of labor supply and labor demand in Qinghai Province.From the perspective of labor supply,the total population of Qinghai Province is slowly increasing.In 2014,the aging phenomenon began to appear,and it is deepening year by year.The growth rate of the population is gradually slowing down.From the perspective of labor demand,the demand for labor in Qinghai Province has been rising.Based on the analysis of the current situation of the supply and demand of labor force in Qinghai Province,this paper is linked with the national macro-five “five-year plan” and predicts the period from the “13th Five-Year Plan” to the “15th Five-Year Plan” in Qinghai Province,the year of 2019~ 2030 for The amount of labor supply and the amount of labor demand.When predicting the quantity of labor supply,this paper first establishes the model of labor supply and labor age population and labor participation rate,and then uses the metabolic GM(1,1)model to predict the working age population in Qinghai Province.On the other hand,based on labor participation rate data,the time series ARIMA model is established to predict labor participation rate data in Qinghai Province.Finally,the forecast value of labor supply in Qinghai Province is obtained by multiplying the labor age population and labor participation rate.When forecasting labor demand,this paper first establishes the labor demand model based on the relationship between labor demand and GDP and social productivity,and then establishes the Qinghai Province GDP Metabolism GM(1,1)prediction model and Qinghai Province Social Productivity Metabolism GM(1,1)prediction model to predict the GDP value and social labor productivity value of Qinghai Province from 2019 to 2030,and then through the ratio of GDP and sociallabor productivity predicts the amount of labor demand in Qinghai Province.Finally,after forecasting and analyzing the quantity of labor supply and labor demand in Qinghai Province from 2019 to 2030,it is concluded that the supply and demand situation of the labor market in Qinghai Province in the next twelve years will show that the supply of labor is less than the demand state.On this basis,Qinghai Province should expand the scale of education,cultivate high-quality talents;respond positively and vigorously promote the policy of two children.The social security system,improve the labor participation rate and improve the talent introduction policy,and attract talents from all fields.