Risk Assessment And Management Of Water Resources System Security In Heilongjiang Province From Economic Perspective

With the continuous development of society,human beings continue to accept new challenges.The water resources system,as the main system carrying the social economy,is constantly facing threats from all levels of society.At the same time,as a large agricultural province,Heilongjiang Province is facing an increasingly serious risk of water resources system.Therefore,it is necessary to carry out water system security risk assessment for the existing water resources problems in Heilongjiang Province.Through the water resources system security risk assessment,the water resources problems existing in Heilongjiang Province can be quantified,and effective management plans can be proposed to optimize the distribution of water resources,thereby reducing the risks of the water resources system and making Heilongjiang Province a faster step.Into the fast lane of development.In order to guarantee the sustainable development of water resources system,this study aims to identify the existing sources of water resources systems in Heilongjiang Province,and firstly identify the risk sources of water resources systems,and provide evaluation indicators for subsequent evaluation and management.Secondly,the quantitative economic value is used to evaluate the security risk of Heilongjiang Province's water resources system,and the main factors affecting the water resources system are analyzed.Finally,by optimizing the distribution of water resources in various industries,the risk of water resources system security in Heilongjiang Province is reduced,and the optimal allocation of water resources is given.The main contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)Identification of water resources system security risks.In order to identify the underlying problems of the risks in the water resources system,water resources based on Hierarchical holographic modeling(HHM)and Risk filtering,ranking,and management(RFRM)are proposed.The system guarantees the risk identification model,which solves the static and one-sided drawbacks of the risk identification method.In this paper,the HHM framework is used to divide the water resources system into 11 different main levels and 39 levels of holographic subsystems,and iterate with the four water level holographic subsystems after time and space decomposition to accurately identify 30 initial scenes;Then,the RFRM method is used to calculate the risk probability of the initial scene and sort it,and 13 high-risk risk scenarios are determined.Finally,33 risk indicators that can quantify the risk scenario are given,which provides a reliable and reliable indicator system for subsequent research.(2)Risk assessment of water resources system security.In order to quantitatively evaluate the risk of water resources system security,this paper constructs a model of water resources system security risk loss.Firstly,combined with the HHM-RFRM method to identify high-risk risk scenarios,Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA)is used to solve the water loss risk economic loss model,so as to realize the quantitative measurement of the risk of water resources system security by using economic numerical values.size.Secondly,based on the DEA,a two-stage Tobit model is added to further analyze the driving factors of the economic loss of water resources security risk from the perspective of water use efficiency.The results show that the minimum economic loss value of the water resources system in Heilongjiang Province from 2000 to 2020 due to insufficient investment is 7.52 billion yuan,the maximum value is 42.51 billion yuan;the minimum output economic loss value of the water resources system is 111.9 billion yuan,and the maximum value is 1106.8 billion yuan.During the research period,the economic loss of water resources security risk in Heilongjiang Province was high,and the water use efficiency was low.From 2000 to 2015,the economic losses of water resources security risks in Heilongjiang Province increased year by year,and the economic losses of water resources output accounted for more than 90% of the economic losses of water resources security risks.It is estimated that the economic loss of water resources security risks in 2020 will be 813.87 billion yuan.The water resources system of Heilongjiang Province is affected by the driving factors such as industrial structure,economic development level and investment in water infrastructure.It is necessary to increase investment in secondary industry and investment in water infrastructure,thereby reducing the economic loss of water resources security risks and ensuring the subsequent water resources system.Support for the development of risk aversion measures.(3)Risk management of water resources system protection.In order to formulate a reasonable water resource allocation plan to reduce the risk of water resources system security and its impact on the social economy,this paper introduces two-stage stochastic planning under the premise of calculating the economic loss of water resources system security risk in Heilongjiang Province.Programming,TSP)model,multi-stage planning ideas and Conditional value at risk(CVa R)model manage the water resources system of Heilongjiang Province.Firstly,from the various high-risk risk scenarios analyzed by HHM-RFRM method,the water consumption of the three major industries and the corresponding income and penalty values are taken as the constraints of the water resources security risk management model,and the largest water resources system in Heilongjiang Province is calculated.The revenue was 184 billion yuan.Because governments and societies have different levels of acceptance of water security risks,they need to introduce risk appetite.The study shows that when the risk preference value is 0.6,the economic benefit of Heilongjiang Province is the largest at 158.26 billion yuan,and the economic benefits tend to be stable.At this time,the water distribution of the three industries is 24.913 billion m3,4.861 billion m3 and 4.397 billion m3 respectively.The research results provide a feasible solution for the rational allocation of water resources in Heilongjiang Province,and achieve a relative balance between economic benefits and water resources system security risks.In summary,through the research on the risk assessment and management of water resources system security in Heilongjiang Province,we can fully grasp the development status of water resources system.In the research of water resources system security risk,there are uncertainties in the source of water resources system,the inability to quantitatively measure the value of economic losses caused by risks,and the lack of basis for formulating the allocation plan for optimizing water resources.In view of the above-mentioned problems of water resources system security risk,this paper combines the current situation of water resources utilization in Heilongjiang Province,uses HHM-RFRM method to identify the risk source of water resources system,and uses DEA model to quantitatively measure the economic loss value of water resources system protection risk.The improved TSP model effectively formulated the water resources optimization configuration solution to solve the above problems,and provided theoretical basis and data support for the study of regional water resources system security risks.