The Empirical Analysis Of Influential Factors Of Net Barter Terms Of Trade In China

Trade has always been a hot issue.As the world's top exporter,China's price terms of trade have been deteriorating.The main research object of this paper is China's terms of price trade.By studying the changes of China's terms of price trade since 1983,it is concluded that China's terms of price trade deteriorated significantly during this period.This paper is divided into the following parts: firstly,the background and research significance of the topic are introduced to understand the significance of the topic.Secondly,it analyzes the changing trend of China's price terms of trade and its influencing factors to understand how they have changed in recent years,and concludes that China's overall price index is deteriorating,among which the influencing factors mainly include economic growth,RMB exchange rate,foreign direct investment(FDI),export commodity structure index and actual tariff rate.Once again,the factors affecting the price terms of trade are analyzed theoretically,which lays a foundation for subsequent empirical analysis.In the part of empirical analysis,the methods used include stationarity test and VAR model,co-integration test,Granger test based on VAR,impulse response analysis and variance decomposition.Through the above methods,the direction and degree of influence of influencing factors on price terms of trade are obtained.Finally,on the basis of the above theoretical analysis and empirical test,this paper discusses the influencing factors of price terms of trade in China,as well as the direction and degree of its influence on price terms of trade,draws the research conclusion and puts forward the improvement policies and Suggestions for the current situation of price terms of trade in China.