Prediction Of Land Use Change In Lanping County Based On Markov-CLUES Coupling Model

Lanping County relies on abundant mineral resources,water energy and other resources,showing a trend of rapid economic development and the increasing demand for land.Rational use of land resources and revealing the trend of land using change are of great significance for promoting the sustainable development of local social economy and land.They also provide a reference for regional coordination and the red-line delineation of county-level ecological protection.Combined with remote sensing and GIS technology,the object-oriented classification method was used to obtain the current data of Lanping County in 2005,2010,2015 and 2018.Through the dynamic change index of land use,the spatial and temporal dynamics of land use in the region were analyzed,and the coupling model was constructed to screen the driving factors of rational land use,verify the model,simulate and predict the land use development trend in Lanping County in 2025.The main findings are as follows:(1)The artificial surface land in Lanping County has the largest change.The area of grassland,cultivated land and other land uses continues to decrease.The artificial surface,forest land and water area are increasing.The comprehensive index of land use shows a downward trend year by year,indicating that land use is in a period of decline.The dynamic degree of artificial surface is the largest,with an annual growth rate of 18.05%,and the annual change rate of cultivated land decreases by 4.55%.The dynamics of comprehensive land use in Lanping County were 5.31%,22.65% and 16.97% in 2005-2010,2010-2015 and 2015-2018,respectively.The overall development speed was faster.In the land transfer matrix,the cultivated land is continuously reduced,mainly to forest land,grassland and artificial surface.(2)Logistic regression analysis was carried out by using nine land use driving factors such as elevation,river and population density.The results were verified by ROC curve method,and the Markov-CLUES coupling model was constructed to predict the data of land use change in 2015.The accuracy test of the actual data in 2015 is carried out,and the Kappa value is calculated to be 0.8692,which indicates that the simulation prediction effect of the model is good.(3)Taking 2018 as the starting year of the forecast,and the Markov-CLUES coupling model was constructed to predict the development of land use change in 2025.Under the trend of natural growth,the area of forest land increased,the area of cultivated land and grassland decreased,and the artificial surface in the flat area continued to expand on the basis of the original area.Overall,the vegetation coverage rate in Lanping County was improved,and the ecological environment was continuously improvement.But land resources have different degrees of waste,low effective land use,and low sustainability.