Incentive Control Of Design Change Between Owner And Contractors Based On Evolutionary Game Theory

The design changes in the construction process of projects are the main factors that affect the owners to achieve the established cost and schedule goals.Transmission and transformation project is a system engineering which needs multi-cooperation.The main stakeholders of design change include the owner,the design unit and the construction unit.Owner unit control of contractor's design change mainly lies in the incentive control of earlier contract and the control of construction process.Because the owner and contractors have a natural game relationship in the distribution of interests,how to establish a suitable incentive mode to achieve a win-win result between owner and contractors,however how to reduce the probability of design change effectively is urgently needed at this stage.By widely reading,searching and analyzing paper about incentive theory at home and abroad,this paper elaborates the hazards and control measures of design change by various professionals,explains how to optimize the management of design change by means of incentives,and studies the development process of incentive theory and the latest research results.On the basis of these studies,puts forward the method of evolutionary game theory,through reasonable definition of change and analysis of hazard utility of change,obtains various decision-making conditions of design change between owner and contractors,and finally determines the positive and negative incentive intensity of owner to contractors,and applies the research results to contract clauses to guide engineering practice.On the basis of relevant theories,this paper focuses on the study of the impact of negative changes caused by contractors(design units and construction units)on the owner,s project construction.After explaining the common changes in power transmission projects,the technical and management impact indicators of design change utility are summarized,and the reasonable impact indicators are screened out by principal component analysis,and the five common design changes caused by contractors are constructed to correspond with them.Finally,the index system for predicting the impact of design change on the owner's utility is formed.Then,the effect of design change on a certain kind of project is predicted by neural network.Based on this,the evolutionary game incentive model of owner and contractor is constructed.Through the analysis of evolutionary path under different conditions,the necessary conditions for the ultimate evolution to win-win situation of three parties are obtained,which serves as the basis for setting the incentive intensity of owner.According to the evolutionary simulation,it is verified that reasonable incentive's setting can enable the owner to effectively control the design changes.Based on the model construction,this paper collects the historical data of the 110 kV substation project.By using the method of mathematical statistics,the technical conditions,management and the negative changes caused by the contractor in the settlement of the projects are obtained.Then according to the above data,SPSS modeler is used to train and learn,and finally the design change prediction value of the proposed project to be analyzed is obtained.Based on these,the evolutionary game model constructed is simulated by system dynamics to obtain the reasonable incentive intensity interval.Finally,it is proposed that the corresponding contract terms can be designed according to the research results,which makes the research results more practical.