Research On Resilient Optimization Of China’s Urbanization System Dynamics Model

At present,China’s urbanization rate close to 60%,a series of disturbance and change also increasingly significant,such as imbalance between the mass transfer of population and employment supply,risk of urban expansion break through environmental carrying capacity,potential threats of national food safety,"urban disease" problem and so on,a more complicated and changeable situation will emerge in the future than ever before.How to judge the future development trend through reasonable urbanization simulation,provide scientific support for policy formulation and planning design,has become a strategic issue concerned by urban and rural planning disciplines.While many kinds of simulation model become important tool and has been widely applied to the discussion of urbanization development,more is to focus on the construction and operation of model,failed to take urbanization disturbance and change into the model using consideration,this could result in the lack of certain reliability and adaptability of model simulation,and difficult to provide effective reference suggestions for the next policy formulation and planning design.While the increasingly accurate and scientific demand of urbanization research,the simulation model is required to make corresponding adaptive optimization,so as to provide a more reliable research basis for judging the development trend and China’s urbanization path in the future.Based on this,take China’s urbanization system dynamics model(hereinafter referred to as China’s urbanization SD model)as the research object,take the resilient optimization of SD model as the main point,discuss emphatically from three aspects: put forward a resilient optimization idea and method of China’s urbanization SD model,analyze resilient optimization process of China’s urbanization SD model,the future development of China’s urbanization.First of all,based on the related studies of simulated urbanization with SD model and the related resilience review of simulated model,put forward a resilient optimization idea of China’s urbanization SD model: "resilience variable selection of SD model —threshold analysis of resilience variable—simulation comparison of threshold regulation" with corresponding method.Then,qualitative experience,HP filter method,ARMA model and extensions,system dynamics model was used to analyze the resilient optimization process of China’s urbanization SD model.It can be seen that the resilient optimization of China’s urbanization SD model better reflects the development and change of real urbanization,and the reliability and adaptability of model simulation were improved.Finally,based on the resilient optimization results of China’s urbanization SD model,further explore the development of Chinese urbanization,China’s urbanization will be more stabilizing and reliable,change control,and mainly impacted by the population birth level,the third industry upgrading,the supply and demand of water resources,these main factors with rational control range can promote or restrain the China’s urbanization process,put forward the adaptable development path of China’s urbanization.Through this study,strive to provide effective reference Suggestions for the policy formulation and urban planning of China’s urbanization in the future.