Study On Optimal Allocation Of Land Resources Elasticity In Shenmu City Based On Uncertainty

In the context of rapid economic development and continuous progress of urbanization in China,land supply,as one of the important means of national economic macro-control,is under rigid control of land use index,which undoubtedly leads to the increasingly intensified contradiction between land supply and demand.How to scientifically and rationally formulate the optimal allocation plan of land resources under the constraint of limited land resources is a hot topic that land scholars at home and abroad have been paying close attention to,and it is also the inevitable requirement for realizing the sustainable development of the country.At the same time,it is common to see that the planning expectation is far from the reality and the plan frequently fails due to the ignorance of the influence caused by the uncertain factors of future land use in the process of land planning.In view of this,it is of great significance to explore the optimal allocation method of land resources elasticity under uncertain conditions.Starting from the potential uncertainties in the process of land resource allocation,this paper analyzes the types,occurrence points and characteristics of various uncertain factors,and puts forward corresponding countermeasures.Taking shenmu city as the research area,the expert survey method was used to obtain the interval range of uncertain indicators to represent the uncertain influence of the future optimal allocation of local land,and the multi-objective interval optimization model was embedded to obtain the optimal allocation plan of land use structure elasticity of shenmu city in 2030.Based on the competition model of spatial suitability,the optimal allocation plan of land use layout elasticity in shenmu city in2030 was defined based on the principle of maximizing the overall suitability of space.The research conclusions of this paper mainly include the following aspects:(1)The uncertain factors in the optimal allocation of land resources can be divided into internal uncertainty and external uncertainty of the allocation system.Among them,internal uncertainty includes subject uncertainty,object uncertainty and configuration process uncertainty.External uncertainties include environmental uncertainty,policy uncertainty,regional development trend uncertainty and occasional uncertainty.(2)For the uncertain impact caused by the subject and object,the basic data of tamping optimal allocation can be adopted to strengthen the dynamic monitoring of land use.The uncertainties in the preparation,examination and approval,implementation and monitoring of allocation schemes can be solved by strengthening the legalization of land planning examination and approval and improving the supervision of planning implementation.In the face of a number of unpredictable external uncertainties,the uncertain optimization model can be applied to prepare the elastic optimal allocation plan to reserve space for the occurrence of future uncertainties,so as to avoid the failure of planning as much as possible.(3)The flexible optimization allocation plan of Shenmu City land use structure obtained by multi-objective interval planning model shows that the maximum economic benefits generated by land use in Shenmu City will be 3367.003×10~8 CNY and the minimum is1340.68×10~8 CNY by 2030.The maximum ecological benefits generated are up to 7246.68×10~6 CNY and the minimum is 6646.70×10~6 CNY.(4)Through the adoption of appropriate degree of competition law to complete the Shenmu,cultivated land,garden land,forest land,grassland,urban industrial and mining land,and the optimal layout of rural residential land and elastic space,and finally it is concluded that shenmu city land utilization layout optimization configuration scheme in 2030,has realized the shenmu,maximizing the overall space suitability.(5)By taking shenmu city as the research area for example study,a set of method system for optimal allocation of elastic land resources based on uncertainty was constructed,and the feasibility and effectiveness of the method were verified,laying a foundation for demarcating more scientific and reasonable elastic land space and formulating optimal allocation plan.