The Behavioral Study On The Decisions Making In The Meteorological Disaster Warning In Shaanxi Province

Meteorological disaster warning signal,as a public service product of the meteorological disaster management,provided by our national meteorological department to the government and public,its quality makes a huge difference to the effectiveness of the meteorological disaster managements.Though the improvements of the accuracy and advance of the warning signals relies deeply on the comprehensive development of the meteorological technology,the related business management system and mechanism also influences it a lot.This paper is aiming to find out the problems hiding under the business management system and mechanism of the warning signal business and provide suggestions to improve by observing the situations of actual operations of the early warning signal business,and enhance the quality of the warning signals by optimizing the system and mechanism.Through observation and analysis,this paper comes to a conclusion that the process of generating early warning signals is a risk decision,and some early warning errors belong to decision errors.Therefore,to achieve the author's research purposes,this article applies prospect theory to analyze the process of deconstructing early warning signals from the perspective of risk decision-making.Specifically,the behavior characteristics of the weather forecasters of Shaanxi Province in their early warning decision-making are taken as the research object of this paper.Moreover,the comprehensive application observation method,interview method,questionnaire method,data and logic analysis method are used to observe and extract 14 major group characteristics and 6 secondary features of the Shaanxi forecasters when they are doing their early warning signal decision-making.Also,a sequence is given according to the influence of various categories of business system mechanism on the behavior characteristics of the forecasters,and the discussions about the causes of the formation of behavioral characteristics and its impact on the quality of warnings;the role of the system mechanism of business management in the formation of characteristics;and how to adjust the business system mechanism to intervene in behavior characteristics are made.Further,this paper will discuss on the way of designing a better early warning signal system that will improve the external environment that conducive to early warning decision making.