Research On Probabilistic Temperature And Probabilistic Wind Calculating Method Of Route Based On Historical Meteorological Data

Route flight temperature data and wind data are the basis for research on route adaptation analysis,navigation analysis and aircraft selection.Based on the historical meteorological data of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA),this paper statistically analyzes the temperature data of global grid points,east-west wind data,and north-south wind data;based on the principle of data statistics,the original data and Various probability distribution function models were fitted,and each fitting graph and fitting parameters were compared and analyzed,and the data probability distribution characteristic function model with the highest fitting degree to historical temperature data,east-west wind data and north-south wind data was obtained,according to the probability distribution.According to the function characteristics of the probability distribution characteristic function model,the temperature database,the east-west wind database and the north-south wind database of NOAA in the past 30 years are simplified,and the simplified historical meteorological database is obtained;established a probabilistic wind probability wind calculation model for the route,and construct a route probability temperature probabilistic wind estimation method based on historical temperature data,historical east-west wind data,and historical north-south wind data probability distribution feature model;taking the typical latitude and longitude grid points as an example,the calculation results of the route probability temperature probability wind estimation method constructed in this paper are compared with the statistical algorithm calculation results,analyzing the influence of probability requirements,isobaric surface,longitude and latitude on the accuracy of wind path probabilistic temperature probability wind calculation results;taking the specific route as an example,the calculation results of Boeing Windtemp software and the calculation results of the route probability temperature probability wind estimation method constructed in this paper are compared with the statistical algorithm calculation results,analyzing of deviations;Finally,using the control variable method,selected a large number of points on the global grid points for calculation,observation and statistics,studying the influence of isobar,latitude and longitude on the probabilistic temperature probability wind.