Research On Investment Decision Evaluation Of Photovoltaic Power Plant Project Based On Real Options

Due to the long-term use of traditional energy sources such as US oil,these actions have brought about climate warming,air pollution.Human health,life and even survival are seriously threatened.The economic and social development of countries around the world has been seriously affected.The United Nations has formulated a climate change conference,The United Nations Climate Change Convention and the Paris Agreement.With the promotion of clean energy in the world,China has established a voluntary emission reduction mechanism,and more and more photovoltaic power generation projects have played important roles in achieving China's emission reduction targets.This paper takes the Tibet PV power plant project as the research object,combines the real option pricing method with the traditional cash flow discounting method,constructs the evaluation model,and verifies the rationality of the model and the scientific nature of the real option pricing method by the actual parameters brought into the research project.The first part introduces the research background,briefly describes the theoretical and practical significance of the research,the research content and method,the application of real options in the investment decision of photovoltaic power generation project;the second part introduces the status quo of China's voluntary emission reduction mechanism.The characteristics of the photovoltaic power generation CCER project and the uncertainty of investment.The investment characteristics are mainly that the investment direction of the project is irreversible,and the project returns are more uncertain.PV power plant project investment has broad development prospects,and it is possible to find business opportunities and invest and build factories along the "Belt and Road" construction.The uncertainty is mainly due to the low probability of record filing,long time,fluctuation of transaction price,and more changes in the trading market.The third part introduces the investment profile of the research station Tibet Power Station,and the net of projects including government subsidies.The present value is calculated and a summary table of financial indicators is made.The fourth part combines the traditional cash flow discount method and the real option pricing method,and uses the PV power plant project as the investment evaluation subject and introduces relevant parameters to construct the research model.The fifth part substitute the application of the actual relevant data of the Tibet PV power plant into the evaluation model of the project,and verify the conclusions to prove that the project value calculated by the model is more than the net present value calculated by the traditional method.It can be seen that the investment in the project selection evaluation model is more scientific,perfect and accurate.The sixth part draws the conclusion that the real option pricing method can effectively compensate for the traditional evaluation methods such as the net present value.Integrity allows investors to make more informed information for investment decisions.The B-S model has no restrictions on the price fluctuation of the underlying assets.Using this model to calculate is in full compliance with China's voluntary emission reduction mechanism.Project investors must fully consider the probability of the project being issued for filing and its impact on the benefits.Through research,it is suggested that the economic value and social benefits of the project should be considered in the same way,and the theoretical and business economic circles should accelerate the theoretical research and practical application of the theory of real options.