Multi-agent Investment Decision-making Game For Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Projects

The development and utilization of renewable energy as an important means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions has become an important development strategy for the country.The development of distributed photovoltaics in China has attracted worldwide attention in recent years,but it is also accompanied by many problems.Therefore,with the further tightening of policies and the maturity of technology,how to make investment decisions for all relevant entities in the distributed photovoltaic power generation industry to promote the development of photovoltaic industry and maximize the benefits has become a research hotspot.This paper selects the distributed photovoltaic power generation projects under the mode of self-use and surplus power grid connection as research objects,and considers the possibility of third-party investors' involvement in the project.After fully analyzing the principles of photovoltaic power generation and clarifying the influencing factors affecting the investment decision of distributed photovoltaic power generation projects,starting from the process of project investment development,subdividing the participating entities,studying the main behaviors of each participating entity in the investment decision-making process,starting from joint ventures Construct a game model from the perspective of solving the probability of investment strategy selection among various agents,make a theoretical analysis of the changes in the probability of choosing the strategy of the agents caused by parameter changes,and then use numerical simulation to further verify the conclusion of the theoretical analysis and provide decisions for each agent.Based on this,policy suggestions to promote the sound development of the project are provided to provide a certain reference for the development of the photovoltaic industry.The main research conclusions are as follows: From the perspective of the entire process,the investment decision of a distributed photovoltaic power generation project in a joint venture involves government agencies,third-party investors,photovoltaic owners,and outsourcers.Among them,outsourcers mainly affect the investment cost of the project.So it is not the main player in the game.In the game,whether or not the government department supports or not,the probability that a third-party investor and the PV owner choose to invest is related to factors such as the investment amount of both parties,the distribution of benefits between the two parties,the project's electricity sales revenue,government subsidies,and the owner's electricity savings.Among them,the probability that a third-party investor and a photovoltaic owner choose to invest is directly proportional to the investment amount of each other,their own project income distribution ratio,and project electricity sales revenue,that is,the two parties have a relationship of promoting investment and competing for income.In addition,government subsidies and owners' savings in electricity costs will also encourage the two entities to choose to invest.When technological innovation reduces the cost of outsourcers,the investment costs of third-party investors and photovoltaic owners decrease accordingly.The increase in the scale of projects under the same investment amount will bring about an increase in project returns,prompting the two entities to choose to invest.Based on the above conclusions,the following policy recommendations are given:First,determining a reasonable benefit distribution ratio is the key to the possibility of joint ventures.Cooperative entities should change their concepts and give full play to the advantages of cooperation to maximize the excess returns of joint ventures.Second,the government can subsidize Actively guide and consider constructing a punishment mechanism to suppress the betrayal behavior of various parties,so as to stimulate the willingness of the parties to invest;Finally,the government should find its own positioning as a policy subject,and through measures such as industrial policies and financial subsidies,it can stimulate cooperation The enthusiasm of enterprises has prompted enterprises to carry out technology research and development,reduce project investment costs,and further promote the willingness of the main body to invest.The improvement of the enthusiasm of the cooperation entities is conducive to expanding the breadth and depth of cooperation,which in turn will help invest in increasing the government's related income and achieving a win-win situation.