Research On Risk Management Of Explosion Accident In Methanol Tank Area Based On Bayesian Network

Methanol is a very important chemical raw material,and its market demand is huge.However,due to its flammable,explosive and evaporative properties,once leaked and evaporated,the mixture of steam and air forms an explosive mixture,and when the explosion limit is reached,there will be a vapor cloud explosion in the event of a fire source.Caused huge casualties and property damage to the factory area and the surrounding residents.In order to ensure the safe operation of methanol tank area and prevent explosion accident,this paper uses Bayesian network analysis method,numerical simulation method and quantitative risk analysis method to study the risk management of methanol tank area explosion accident.The main contents are as follows:(1)The tree diagram of explosion accident in methanol tank area is drawn,and the cause of explosion accident in methanol tank area is analyzed and summarized.The probability analysis and sensitivity analysis of explosion accident in methanol tank area are carried out by using Bayesian network probabilistic inference and reverse diagnostic reasoning.The probability of occurrence of fire source is 1.8E-02.The probability of methanol leakage is 7.98E-02,and the probability of methanol tank explosion is 7.76E-05.The sensitivity of factor X1~X10?X19~X21 is obviously greater than that of factor X34~X71 by using reverse diagnostic reasoning.(2)The leakage rate of methanol is calculated with the diameter of leakage port as variable,and the leakage quality is calculated by setting different leakage time.The consequences of vapor cloud explosion in methanol tank area are simulated and analyzed by using MATLAB numerical simulation software.The conclusions are as follows: 1)when the caliber of leakage is fixed,the shorter the leakage time,the less the radius of death,the radius of light injury and the radius of property loss;When the leakage time is constant,the smaller the aperture of leakage,the radius of death,the radius of light injury and the radius of property damage,the smaller the radius of damage of property,the smaller the spread range of the people and property caused by the explosion.2)the larger the amount of leakage.The larger the shock wave overpressure is at the same distance from the center of the explosion,the greater the leakage amount is,and the larger the spread range of the dangerous persons and property caused by the explosion.(3)Through the quantitative risk analysis method,based on the personal risk benchmark,the personal risk value in methanol tank unit is calculated.The cumulative frequency values corresponding to different cumulative deaths are calculated according to the social risk FN diagram.Combined with personal risk analysis and social risk analysis of explosion accident in methanol tank area,this paper provides a theoretical basis for the formulation of risk prevention and control measures in methanol tank area.(4)According to the investigation and analysis,combined with the actual situation of the enterprise,this paper studies the problems existing in the safety management of methanol tank area,and puts forward the risk aversion countermeasures and accident protection measures such as essential safety control,strict control of fire source,prevention of methanol leakage,etc.Reduce the disaster loss in tank area as much as possible in order to improve the safety and risk management level of enterprises.