Risk Assessment And Consequence Analysis Of Potential Explosion Of Subsea Pipeline

As the lifeline of the offshore oil and gas,deep-sea oil and gas transportation system face many potential risks,one of the most serious consequences is explosion accident caused by the leakage of oil and gas.Several serious damage accidents of offshore platforms in history were caused by explosions,such as the Deepwater Horizon platform explosion and the Piper-Alpha platform explosion.Therefore,it is necessary to analyze the consequences of oil and gas leakage in the deep-sea underwater system,especially to predict the potential explosion risk.This paper analyzed the risk of potential steam cloud explosion of offshore platforms.This paper established a method of using fuzzy reasoning system to analyze the probability of explosion risk.Firstly,accident statistics and FMEA analysis are used to identify risks and build fault tree.Mamdani algorithm is selected to build a fuzzy reasoning model based on the fault tree.The relative importance of the bottom event is introduced into the inference system,and the correction function is used to solve the problem of input-output difference of the inference engine.The whole model of the fuzzy reasoning system is constructed by using MATLAB and Simulink,to calculate the explosion probability.The comparison of the results between this method and the traditional fault tree method shows that the method is scientific.This method solves the disadvantage that traditional fault tree analysis cannot consider the relative importance.It can calculate the input of fuzzy value and actual value flexibly.it has strong expansibility.In view of the consequences of the explosion of offshore platforms,this paper evaluates the consequences of the explosion from three aspects: personnel,environment,and economy.Through the investigation and improvement of the research results,a complete set of the evaluation system for the consequences of the vapor cloud explosion has been formed.Fluent software is used to simulate the explosion of the methane-air mixed vapor cloud.The law of explosion overpressure is found.The simulation results are basically consistent with the experimental results,which proves the feasibility of the method.This paper analyzed The domino events in ocean engineering and proposed an improved risk combination evaluation method based on traditional risk assessment method.Rough set and neural network are used to evaluate the consequences of domino events.