Risk Assessment Of Agricultural Drought In Liaoning Province Based On GIS

Agricultural drought is one of the most serious natural disasters in the world.It has the characteristics of high frequency occurrence,long duration,and extensive distribution.It has a great impact on human life,social development and ecological environment.Liaoning Province is one of the provinces in China with frequent drought,which has brought serious negative impact on human production and life.To address those key problems,this paper constructed the conceptual framework of agricultural drought risk assessment and clarified the agricultural drought risk system in Liaoning Province.It consists of four factors,which are the risk of the disaster causing factors,risk of the disaster causing factors,the environmental vulnerability,and the ability of disaster prevention and reduction.The method of weighted comprehensive evaluation was applied to construct the drought index system.The disaster mechanism of drought disaster in Liaoning Province is clarified.The weight coefficient of each index was determined by AHP and the index layer was constructed.The drought risk map was figured out by GIS.As a result of this,the agricultural drought risk in Liaoning Province was divided into five risk levels.This implied that the drought risk would be effectively assessed in advance.The main results are as follows:1)Under the influence of climate change and human activities,agricultural drought in Liaoning Province generally presents the trend of frequent,multiple,consecutive and concurrent.The key to develop risk response strategies is to carry out agricultural drought risk assessment research.Through in-depth analysis of the mechanism of agricultural drought disaster in Liaoning Province,an agricultural drought risk assessment index system is established,which is composed of factor layer,sub factor layer and index layer.With the help of multi index evaluation model,the risk assessment of agricultural drought in the whole province is realized.2)The drought risk areas of Liaoning Province could be divided into five levels,which are low risk(the eastern area),slight low risk(the central plain area),moderate risk(Tieling and the southern area),and high risk(the transition zone from the hilly area to the central plain in Western Liaoning and the most areas in southern Liaoning).3)Combining the actualities of existing engineering measures and non-engineering measures in Liaoning Province,strategies for responding to agricultural drought risk were proposed:strengthen drought-resistant infrastructure construction and improve drought-relief and disaster-relief capabilities;strengthen drought-resistant planning system and establish long-term drought-resistant mechanisms;improve disaster prevention capacity;strengthen the drought resistance equipment reserve stable improve emergency drought resistance capacity.