Identification Method And Application Of LURR Before Earthquakes Via Groundwater Level

Earthquakes has brought a large number of casualites and economic losses to human being.And it has also broughta heavy blow to human will.However,scientists never give up to try to predict earthquake.A great number of them do it via precursor phenomenon before earthquake.With the continous improvement of observation techonology,until now,several dozens of earthquake precursors have been found.As one of the major observation items of earthquake,groundwater level is of great importance in the study of the earthquake breeding.However,there are two problems which need to be solved in the field observation of groundwater level.Oneis the low signal-to-noise ratio of field observation and the other is the lack of anomaly identification information for scientific evaluation.So the conclusion is still controversial.Load/Unload Response Ratio(LURR)is an earthquake prediction method via detecting the stable state of rock medium in the period of response difference of loading and unloading process of solid tide.It can reflet the process of earthquake breeding via the change of LURR directly which makes up the problems above.So in this paper we apply LURR method to groundwater level.We develop a new LURR calculating method via groundwater level which can be applied into the tracking of water level data to provide information and constraints for seismic risk assessment.The following works has been completed in this paper: 1.We developed groundwater level LURR calculating method in the ideal seismogenic fault plane,which has solved two problems:(i)judge the stage of loading and unloading.(ii)the selection of water level datas and the removement of interference.(iii)calculate LURR;2.On the basic of above,we finished groundwater level LURR calculation software,whose characteristic can be described as following:(i)process water data directly;(ii)output LURR time series on the basic of exsiting paramaters,assess the risk of earthquake according to the change of parameters;(iii)esay to operate.3.In order to check the accuracy of the algorithm,we collect the data of the earthquakes whose magnitude beyond 5 from 2008 to 2018 and the near field wells in the range of 300 km.Then we use the software we finished to output LURR time series and finally get the index of evaluation system.4.In addition,we adopted Benioff strain and groundwater level as the loading/unloading response to calculate LURR.We find that the high value appears in the same period which indicate the accuracy of the algorithm again.5.On the basic of above study,we try to predict the earthquake trend of China mainland.We only predict Sichuan,Chognqing,Xinjiang and Chongqing regions which the dateline is December 15 th,2019.The parameters we calculate LURR are according to the results which fitted with the parameters of earthquakes above 6 and activeteconics.After that we calculate LURR of each water station we predict.Later,We give the regions which may be dangerous.Then,we try to access the forecast effectiveness with the help of earthquake conditions between January 1th 2020 with June 1th 2020.The results show that most of the earthquakes take place in the dangerous region we give.We could not catch others because of the lack of water stations.And we hold the view that the dateline of observation has not arrived for some of stations which anomalies occur but get no earthquakes.