Relationship Between Social Division And Climate Change During 202 BC To 960 AD

The impact of climate change on human society is extensive and profound.With the development of palaeoclimate reconstruction,more and more palaeoclimate substitution index data emerge.In combination with the vast and miscellaneous historical documents collected by researchers,a large number of social index data representing the social change in historical period appear,which all provide the possibility for the quantitative study of climate and social change.A large number of research results have confirmed that social phenomena such as agricultural economy,war,population growth,migration,rise and fall of countries in historical society are closely related to climate change,and The impact mechanism of climate change on society varies on different time and space scales.Researchers use conceptual models such as relative resource shortages and food security to explain climate change and social response mechanisms,and analyze the social impacts of climate change from the climate-agriculture-population-war approach.From the Western Han Dynasty to the Five Dynasties,as a very important period in Chinese history,after two periods of great unity and two periods of chaos in Chinese history,social division showed two cycles on a long-term scale,while climate change experienced two The Great Warm Period-Qin-Han Warm Period and Sui-Tang Warm Period,so it is very necessary to study the relationship and influence mechanism of climate change from the Western Han to the Five Dynasties and social chaos.In order to better respond to the doubts of historians and social humanists,this research distinguishes the traditional thinking of dividing the cold and warm periods into research,instead of using the optimal clustering method of ordered clustering to start from the quantitative division of social chaos.Through correlation analysis and comparison of the indicators of climate change and social change during the period of social division,the relationship between climate change and social changes in the period from the Western Han to the Five Generations was tested.Combining climate change,agriculture,and population data to explain the relationship and mechanism of climate change and the rise and fall of social chaos during this period.Thedevelopment of this research is expected to enrich the relationship and mechanism of climate change and social impact in historical periods,to draw lessons from the past,to enhance the understanding of contemporary climate change and human social impact,and to enhance human society's ability to prevent climate change disasters in the context of global climate.This study combines the mathematical statistics conclusion and the previous research theories to verify that the change from the Western Han Dynasty to the fifth generation of social chaos is related to climate change.The main conclusions are as follows:This article uses the optimum split method to divide social division according to the 12 cycles of the total number of wars from the Western Han to the Five Dynasties:202BC-8AD,9AD-28 AD,29AD-88 AD,89AD-188 AD,189AD-298 AD,299AD-318 AD,319AD-388 AD,389AD-448 AD,449AD-608 AD,609AD-628 AD,629AD-748 AD,749AD-778 AD,789AD-859 AD,860AD-960 AD.Correlation analysis and statistics of indicator data in each social period show that the climate conditions corresponding to the high frequency of rebellions and general wars are temperature reduction and wetness index reduction,and the climate corresponding to the high frequency of the war between agricultural and pastoral was wetness index reduction.The change in temperature and wetness index in prosperity is higher than that in the adjacent chaos in most cases.When the the transition from prosperity to chaos,the temperature and the wetness index decreases;and when the transition from chaos to prosperity,the wetness index increases..Constructed three simplified paths from the climate change to the period of social division,namely:(a)Temperature or precipitation-grain yield gradesrebellions-general war-social chaos;(b)Precipitation-migration-war between pastoralists and agriculturalists-general war-social chaos;(c)Temperature-population migration-war between pastoralists and agriculturalists-general war-social chaos.