Predicting The Habitat For Alien Species And System Design Based On GIS

Alien invasion species have broken ecosystems all over the world and have caused huge losses in the world economy.Responding actively to alien invasion species is crucial to protect the ecological environment we live in.Predicting the habitat for alien species is the most cost-effective way to prevent the invasion and damage of alien species.It applies the species distribution model,such as BIOCLIM,GARP,DOMAIN,MAXENT etc.,to comprehensively calculate the model data and use it as the basis for the classification of the habitat for alien species.Although some application software packages have been developed based on these models,the defects are obvious,that is,the output and expression of the results are not direct enough.Because the suitable area is zonal,it is a piece of data.The results of existing research are point data,and the range of the point data cannot be visually recognized.Based on this,the case study of Pterygoplichthys pardalis,according to Pterygoplichthys pardalis' biological parameters and climatological data of the group predicts the potential geographical distribution.The output is displayed in the form of a map,which realizes the conversion of the data expression from point to the surface.The main research work and results of this paper include:(1)Realizing the prediction of habitat of Pterygoplichthys pardalis in global large-scale.On the basis of studying the bioclimatic analogy model,determining the climate analogy model parameter index by the correlation index analysis,obtaining model research data and importing climate analogy model,calculates the Ecological Index(EI).The ecological index value of each predicted points is calculated,and the predicted the habitat for alien species is obtained according to the warning level.(2)Realizing the prediction of habitat of Pterygoplichthys pardalis in the Guangdong province small-scale.On the basis of studying the model of analogy deviation algorithm,obtaining climatic factors and non-climate factors' model research data and importing analogy deviation model,calculates the analogy deviation value.The analogy deviation value of each predicted points is calculated,and the predicted the habitat for alien species is obtained according to the warning level.(3)The accuracy of the prediction model is verified.In the study of "the receiver-operating characteristics"(Receiver Operating Characteristic,ROC)and "Curve Area"(Area Under the Curve,AUC)precision verification model,on the basis of drawing the verification accuracy of ROC curves,calculates the AUC value.The results show that the two AUC values predicted in the large-scale area are 0.91 and 0.93,the AUC value of small-scale is 0.98.The prediction results are excellent and the accuracy of the prediction model is verified.(4)Developing a prediction system for habitat of alien species.The application Software for predicting the habitat for alien species were developed using C#(programming language)and GIS' secondary developing module—ArcGIS Engine,integrating the species distribution model with the secondary development of the geographic information system.The functions of human-computer Interaction,model data processing,database management and analysis and the habitat of alien species' prediction results displaying are finished.