Efficiency Study And Driving Factor Analysis Of Agricultural Grey Water Footprint In Huaihe River Basin

Water resources shortage is caused by water pollution and excessive consumption in the Huaihe River Basin,which seriously restricts the sustainable development of water environment,society and economy in the whole basin.Grey water footprint theory can provide a new method for the comprehensive study of agricultural water pollution and water resources quantity.Based on the fact that the per capita possession of water resources is small and water pollution exists in the basin,the analysis of the grey water footprint have important practical significance for agricultural production activities and ecological environment protection in the basin.Firstly,based on Hoekstra's grey water footprint theory,the agricultural grey water footprint of Huaihe River Basin from 2000 to 2015 was estimated from three sectors: planting,animal husbandry and aquaculture.On this basis,DEA-BCC model is used to analyze the static agricultural grey water footprint efficiency and Malmquist index method is used to analyze the dynamic change of agricultural grey water footprint efficiency.Finally,based on the extended Kaya identity and LMDI model,the internal driving contribution of agricultural economy,fertilizer intensity,grey water production,fertilizer environment and cultivated land resources to agricultural grey water footprint efficiency was analyzed,and different driving modes were divided according to the contribution rate distribution of each driving effect.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: Firstly,the calculation and analysis of agricultural grey water footprint in Huaihe River Basin: the agricultural grey water footprint shows a general trend of rising first and then declining from 2000 to 2015;the agricultural water pollution situation gradually improved from upstream to downstream,and the water environment gradually optimized,in which Henan Province accounted for the largest proportion,followed by Jiangsu,and Shandong Province the smallest;At the same time,the proportion of grey water footprint in planting industry was the largest,followed by animal husbandry and aquaculture,which only accounted for less than 10%.Secondly,the calculation and analysis of agricultural grey water footprint efficiency in the Huaihe River Basin: the average agricultural grey water footprint efficiency is about 0.6,which indicate the overall efficiency level is low and needs to be improved,but technological progress promotes the improvement of agricultural grey water footprint efficiency,and economic development plays an important external guarantee role in agricultural development;moreover,the average agricultural grey water footprint efficiency in the Huaihe River Basin is Shandong > Anhui > Jiangsu > Henan,showing a gradual increase in regional differences from the inland upstream to the eastern downstream coastal areas.Thirdly,the decomposition analysis of driving factors of agricultural grey water footprint efficiency in Huaihe River Basin: the agricultural economic effect,the grey water production effect,the cultivated land resources effect have positive effects,while the fertilizer intensity effect and the chemical fertilizer environmental effect have negative effects.Among them,the agriculturaleconomic effect is the most important internal driving factor to improve the efficiency of agricultural grey water footprint.According to the effect of driving factors in different regions,it can be divided into three types: single-driving effect model,double-driving effect model and three-driving effect model.The single-driving effect model includes agricultural economic effect-oriented model I and grey water production effect-oriented model II,and the double-driving effect model includes agricultural economic effect and fertilizer environmental effect-oriented model ?,The three-driving effect model IV is mainly driven by agricultural economic effect,fertilizer environmental effect and cultivated land resource effect.Therefore,the Huaihe River Basin should regard the planting industry of Henan Province as a key area and department for water pollution control,give full play to the positive driving effect of agricultural economic effect,provide important impetus for agricultural development by relying on the progress of agricultural technology,keep vigilance against the increase of environmental effects of chemical fertilizers and pesticides,and effectively reduce the input of chemical fertilizers and pesticides,so as to promote fertilizer profits by reducing the intensity effect of chemical fertilizers.Improve the efficiency of agricultural grey water footprint.