| Objective:The purpose of this study is to understand the distribution and variation of pollutant concentration.The time series method is used to quantitatively assess the impact of pollutants on the death of respiratory and circulatory systems,identify the sensitive population,enhance the awareness of air pollution protection of the general public,improve the health level,and provide scientific basis for local air pollution prevention and control policies.Methods:This study collected air pollution monitoring data,meteorological data and death data from 2014 to 2018 in Changchun.To analyze the difference of the effects of pollutants in different seasons on the death of respiratory and circulatory systems and stratified by gender,age,analyze the difference of health effect of residents,identify the sensitive population.Finally using DLNM model further analysis of pollutants on the breathing,circulation system of death exposed-reaction relations and the cumulative lag effect.Results:1.From 2014 to 2018,the concentration of air pollutants in Changchun has been decreasing year by year.The average daily concentrations and ranges of PM2.5,PM10,SO2,NO2,O3 and CO were 51.25ug/m3?5-487ug/m3?,86.88ug/m3?11-1011ug/m3?,27.6ug/m3?2-151ug/m3?,39.37ug/m3?11-109 ug/m3?,87.99ug/m3?16-228 ug/m3?and 0.93mg/m3?0.3-3.2mg/m3?.According to the<air quality standard ambient>,PM10,PM2.5,O3,SO2,NO2 are in the order of exceeding the national first-level air quality standard.Exceeding the level 2 of national air quality standard are PM2.5,PM10,O3,NO2 and SO2.During the period,the average temperature was 7.0°C?-26.1-29.9°C?,the average humidity was 59.97%?14-100%?,the average pressure was 987.05 hpa?956.3-1011.2 hpa?,the wind speed was 2.66km/h?0.2-7.7 km/h?,and the precipitation was 1.74mm?0-77.2mm?.Meteorological factors and pollutant obviated seasonal trend.The peaks of PM2.5,SO2 and CO concentration were mainly concentrated in winter and spring,while the seasonal trend of O3 was opposite and peaks occur in summer and autumn.2.The total number of respiratory deaths during the study period was 7,879,with an average daily death rate of 4.31,ranging from 0 to 14.According to the gender stratification,more men died than women,with a ratio of 1.49 to 1.According to age stratification,the number of deaths in the age group?65 years was significantly higher than that in the age group<65 years,with a ratio of 5.26:1.The total number of circulatory deaths was 44,847,and the average death rate was 24.56,ranging from7-46.By gender,more men died than women,with a ratio of 1.3 to 1.According to age stratification,the number of deaths in the age group?65 years old was more than that in the age group<65 years old,with a ratio of 1.74:1.3.The results of the impact of air pollution on respiratory system death show that PM2.5,PM10,O3 and CO had hysteresis effects on respiratory system death.When the effect was at its maximum,the risk of respiratory system death increased by 0.84%?95%CI:0.21%-1.47%?,0.67%?95%CI:0.25%-1.10%?,1.85%?95%CI:0.88%-2.84%?and 1.03%?95%CI:0.21%-1.87%?for every 10ug/m3 increase in the average daily concentration?for every 0.1mg/m3 increase in the CO concentration?.When the cumulative hysteresis effect was maximum,the respiratory mortality risk of PM10 and O3 was increased by 1.49%?95%CI:0.11%-2.91%?,6.85%?95%CI:1.20%-2.82%?,respectively.4.The results of the influence of air pollution on the death of circulatory system showed that O3 and CO had lagging effects on the death of circulatory system.When the effect was maximum,the death risk of circulatory system increased by 0.51%?95%CI:0.06%-0.96%?and 0.42%?95%CI:0.05%-0.80%?for each increase of10ug/m3 and 0.1mg/m3,respectively.When the cumulative hysteresis effect was at its maximum,the mortality risk of PM10,O3 and CO on the circulative system was increased by 0.52%?95%CI:0.01%-1.01%?,1.28%?95%CI:0.29%-2.20%?,0.60%?95%CI:0.01%-1.21%?,respectively.?5.The results show that PM2.5,PM10,SO2 and O3 had significantly stronger effects on respiratory system death in warm season than cold by contrast;NO2 had a stronger effect on respiratory mortality during the cold season.For the influence on the circulation system,PM2.5 has a strong effect in the cold season,while PM10,NO2,O3 and CO had a stronger effect in the warm season.The influence on the circulation system,PM2.5 had a strong effect in the cold season,while PM10,NO2,O3 and CO stronger effect in warm.6.Effects of pollutants on the respiratory and circulatory system death of residents of different genders the results showed that pollutants only affect the death of males,while PM2.5,PM10,NO2,O3 and CO affects the death of males.Only O3 had an effect on the death of male circulatory system.7.Effects of pollutants on deaths of respiratory and circulatory systems with residents of different ages.The influences of PM2.5,CO and O3 are sensitive to residents'?65 years old,while the influences of PM10 and NO2 were more sensitive to residents less than 65 years old The effect of pollutants on circulatory mortality was significant only for residents aged 65 or older.Conclusion:1.The main pollutants that exceeded the standard in Changchun from 2014 to2018 were PM10,PM2.5,and O3;the concentrations of pollutants PM2.5,PM10,SO2,and NO2 showed a downward trend year by year.2.PM2.5,PM10,O3 and CO has lag effect on respiratory system'death;PM10,O3 and CO has lag effect on circulatory system'death.3.There are seasonal differences in the impact of air pollutants on the death of respiratory and circulatory system diseases.Health effects on the respiratory system,PM2.5,PM10,SO2 and O3 are stronger in the warm season,NO2 is stronger in the cold season;Health effects on the circulatory system,PM10,NO2,O3 and CO are stronger in the warm season,PM2.5 is stronger in the cold season.And the risks are different for people of different ages and genders.4.With the increase of air pollutant concentration,the risk of death of respiratory and circulatory systems also increased.The relationship between the two showed a linear relationship without threshold value even when the pollutant concentration was above the limit. |
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