Study On Optimal Allocation Of Water Resources In Sixian County Based On Multi Objective Programming

Water is the source of life,the key to production and the base of ecology,it plays an irreplaceable role in supporting regional coordinated development.At present,the water problems such as the difficulty of regional water intake and water quality guarantee have become the important factors hindering the sustainable development of the region.Therefore,carrying out research on the optimal allocation of regional water resources,scientifically and rationally allocating limited water resources,can effectively alleviate the crisis caused by water shortage.Based on this,this paper takes Sixian County of Anhui Province as the research area,considering the water distribution relationship between water use departments and water supply sources,the maximum economic benefit,the minimum social water shortage rate and the minimum pollutant emission are selected as the objective functions,establish a multi-objective water resources optimal allocation model in Sixian County.The model was solved by NSGA-? algorithm,according to the generated Pareto optimal solution and multiobjective programming characteristics,the water resources allocation scheme of each planning year is determined under different guarantee rates.The main contents and achievements are as follows:(1)Selecting 2018 as the current year,the development and utilization degree of water resources in Sixian county is evaluated,based on the actual water supply and water demand for many years,the supply and demand trends of water sources and water use sectors are analyzed,the water consumption level of Sixian County is further illustrated by the water consumption indexes of living,industry and agriculture in the current year.(2)Comprehensive analysis of the planning,achievements,communiques and other materials of Sixian County,on the basis of the current year,2025,2030 and 2035 are selected as the planning years.Forecast the economic,agricultural,population and other development indicators in the planning year,water demand in different planning years is predicted by quota method.And based on the current year water supply project,the available water supply in each planning year is predicted under different guarantee rates.Through the analysis of the balance of supply and demand in the planning year,we can see that,under the guarantee rate of P = 50% and P = 75%,the regional water intake in the planning year can meet the demand,and there is no water shortage;when the guarantee rate is P = 95%,conflict of regional water supply and demand,and water shortage will appear in different degrees.(3)The parameters of the model are determined,and the optimal allocation scheme of water resources is obtained by solving NSGA-? algorithm.According to the generated Pareto optimal solution and multi-objective programming characteristics,Determine the optimal allocation scheme of water resources.The optimal configuration results show that: under the P = 95%,the total water shortage and water shortage ratio of each planning year are 19.44 million m3,26.93 million m3,28.59 million m3 and 11.6%,14.5% and 15.1% respectively.Compared with the conventional water resources allocation scheme,under the assurance rate of P = 95% in each planning year,the water shortage ratio of the whole county decreased by 1.0%,2.0% and 2.7% respectively.Finally,in view of the water shortage in different degrees in the planning year,this study also put forward the suggestions and countermeasures of reasonable development and utilization of water resources in Sixian County.