An Empirical Study On The Results Of Supply-side Reform In China's Coal Industry

According to the data of the coal balance table in ?China Statistical Yearbook?,the total supply of coal in China has exceeded the total demand since 2009,and this difference in supply and demand has been increasing.Since 2012,the supply and demand balance of China's coal resources has gradually narrowed down in statistics.However,the fundamental source of supply exceeds demand,which is also the problem of overcapacity in the entire coal industry,has not received attention and resolution.Until 2015,the government proposed a supply-side reform to adjust China's industrial structure,to improve the supply system,and rectify the source of supply,and to achieve the purpose of using the changes in the supply side to drive the temporary stagnation of demand-side growth.Thus the energy sector is actively responding to the policy.Because coal is China's largest energy source,it is inevitable that it will change first.And because most of the large enterprises in the coal industry have the nature of state-owned enterprises,the internal structure has become more and more rigid.Many small-scale coal enterprises have experienced phenomena,and the overall industrial structure is loose,production efficiency is low.Under the influence of the “gold decade for coal in the early 20 th century”,there are many blind investments in coal mines,which have resulted in excess production capacity in the coal industry and serious disconnect from the demand side.This is also the key to the imbalance in supply and demand in the coal market in China in recent years.Coal is an energy source,and it is a commodity.From the microeconomic point of view,as a commodity coal,whether its market supply and demand are balanced is an important indicator of the healthy and orderly development of the coal industry.Therefore,whether the coal industry supply and demand are balanced or not is also an important aspect of demonstrating whether or not China's supply-side reform is effective.Due to the short implementation time of supply-side reforms,in order to demonstrate its effectiveness more prominently,this paper believes that it is possible to use forecasting methods to lengthen the time for supply-side reforms.This thesis takes the supply and demand situation of the coal carbon market as a starting point,and uses forecasting and comparison methods with the annual data before 2015 and the quarterly data after 2015.Through predicting the supply and demand of the two groups in 2020 and the two relative ratios,it can be demonstrated that the current supply-side reforms in China in the coal industry have been effective and have yielded significant results.In the first part the thesis sorts out the historical supply and demand situation of China's coal industry,and introduces the current situation of ongoing supply-side reform,and then analyzes the possible factors that affect China's coal supply and demand.There are six main factors affecting the demand,namely,“GDP,energy consumption structure,industrial structure of the main coal consumption industry,degree of urbanization,domestic coal price and technological progress in energy use”.And there are also six main factors affecting supply,which are “coal resource constraints,coal transportation capacity,coal industry concentration,coal industry technical water,and policy guidance”.Judging from the current situation,the supply-side reforms since 2015 have been very effective in terms of capacity reduction.However,for the moment,whether supply-side reforms have alleviated the imbalance in supply and demand in the coal-carbon market still needs further demonstration.Because the reasons that affect coal demand are very complex and there is also policy-oriented participation,the use of long-term annual data to make predictions cannot rely solely on the results of the model.Therefore,the prediction of coal demand uses energy elasticity coefficient method and multiple linear regression method.In both cases,a more reasonable forecast value is comprehensively evaluated based on the actual situation.Finally,the estimated 2020 reasonable coal consumption forecast using the data before 2015 is about 4.04 billion tons.When forecasting supply,because most of the factors that affect the supply are not quantifiable,it can be seen that the data is very closely related to the time itself through analysis of historical data of supply.Therefore,this paper uses the time series AR model and the annual supply data before 2015 to predicts that the coal supply in 2020 will be 4.24 billion tons.After using supply-side reforms,quarterly data for 2016-2017,the ARMA model and the ARIMA model are used separately because the data sequence is shorter and the forecast length is shorter,and its trend over time is also relatively reliable.According to the forecast,the demand in 2020 was about 4.12 billion tons,and the supply was 4.09 billion tons.After the empirical analysis,this paper quantitatively demonstrates and qualitatively proves the results of the supply-side reform of the coal industry in China.It is concluded that the implementation of the supply-side reform has indeed improved the supply of the coal market in China,which is greater than the demand,and is expected to reach a balance between supply and demand in 2020.The supply and demand gap predicted by the data after supply-side reform is only 18.3% by the supply-side pre-reform data predicts of the difference between supply and demand.Finally,this thesis believes that the current measures of the supply side reform are effective and should continue to be implemented.However,in the implementation process,attention should be paid to the resolution of emerging issues.For example,the resettlement of workers who are unemployed due to industrial adjustment cannot be simply digested by the enterprise,and they need the help of the government.And another example is that,during the current period of capacity reduction and structural adjustment,the use of imported coal may be used to buffer the supply and demand of the coal industry.To solve the problem that the current low qualified supply cannot meet the high quality demand.The main innovations in this thesis are as follows: 1.This thesis adopts the method of forecasting and contrasting to demonstrate empirically and compares the results of two groups of different data predictions.2.In the policy proposal,it is recommended that imported coal be encouraged to buffer the contradiction between supply and demand.