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Spatial And Temporal Distribution Characteristics And Influencing Factors Of Air Pollution In China

Posted on:2019-11-12Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y LiuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2371330545965606Subject:Applied Statistics
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In recent years,our air pollution problems are serious,haze events occur frequently and various atmospheric pollutants have a serious impact on our life.A thorough analysis of the causes of air pollution in China is crucial to formulating policies scientifically and effectively.Therefore,we need to find out the specific characteristics of air pollution and effectively alleviate the air pollution problem.Including where the air pollution is concentrated?Does the air pollution have spillover effects in the neighboring areas?What are the factors affecting the air pollution?Are these factors similar to the ones we have imagined,and how much influence is there on air quality?These issues have important practical significance for exploring the characteristics of air pollution.This article explores the spatial effects of air pollution in 30 provinces in China.In the study,we first examined the distribution of AQI over time,and initially understood the current status of air pollution in China.The results of the study showed that air pollution in China experienced seasonal changes,with the most serious manifestations of air pollution in winter,followed by spring and autumn.The summer is best,and the air pollution in the northern region is more serious than in the southern region.The spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to examine the spatial effects of air pollution across the provinces.The results of the global spatial correlation analysis showed that the air pollution in each province in China has a strong spatial correlation,and the correlation coefficient in recent years is 0.5.Local spatial correlation analysis shows that air pollution has a significant spatial agglomeration effect,and the agglomeration mode presents high-high agglomeration and low-low agglomeration forms.Secondly,in order to avoid the model result error caused by multicollinearity,this paper analyzes the influencing factors of air pollution in China by establishing the principal component regression model,and determines the influencing factors of air pollution and the magnitude of its acting force.The results of the model show that the GDP,pop,car,heat,build,energy and rain all affect the air quality to some extent.The final explanatory variables were determined based on the results of the principal component regression analysis model.The spatial error model and the spatial lag model were established.Through the comparison of the two models,the results showed that the spatial lag model with random effects had a better fitting effect,indicating that the air pollution had a certain degree of Space spillover effect.According to the spatial lag model correlation coefficient,the air pollution in this province is affected by the air pollution in the neighboring provinces.Each explanatory variable has a spatial effect to varying degrees.Therefore,the issue of air pollution prevention and control cannot rely on a single city or province to fight alone.It should rely on regional cooperation and joint governance.Finally,based on the empirical analysis results and combined with the successful experience of developed countries in managing air pollution,this paper puts forward reasonable suggestions for air pollution control in China.
Keywords/Search Tags:Air pollution, Principal component regression, Spatial correlation, Spatial econometric model
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