Research On Provincial CO₂ Emission Intensity Of Chinese Construction Industry Based On Spatial Econometric Model

So far,the carbon emission problem has drawn wide attention from the whole society.Many researchers have put their effort in studying carbon emission within a perspective of a specified region and industry.As the most rapidly developing industry in China,construction industry produces great amount of carbon emission with high carbon emission intensity,so it is an utterly important field in terms of carbon emission reduction.However,the existing research on Chinese construction industry carbon emission intensity,which is a widely used indicator of carbon emission,has been rare and limited.Accordingly,the feature of provincial carbon emission intensity of Chinese construction industry will be studied in this dissertation.First,carbon emission intensity calculation model was built based on the life cycle theory and material balance method,according to which the provincial carbon emission intensity of Chinese construction industry from 2004 to 2014 was calculated and analyzed.Second,STIRPAT model was extended to include population,affluence,technology,construction industry consumption structure and construction industry development level as influencing factors.Third,the proper spatial weight matrix was selected,and the spatial correlation of carbon emission intensity among different provinces was tested and analyzed based upon the multivariable global Moran's I estimate.Fourth,appropriate spatial econometric model was selected,and the spillover effects and influencing factors of Chinese construction industry carbon emission intensity were studied.The results show that the carbon emission of Chinese construction industry through 2004 to 2014 has basically been through four stages: sustainable development,overspeed development,adjusted deceleration,and steady development.Indirect carbon emission constantly holds a very high proportion of the total emission.Furthermore,carbon emission intensity of Chinese construction industry is geographically distributed in a scattered way and shows a significant negative spatial correlation with High-Low or Low-High clustering modes.Moreover,Spatial Durbin Model with random spatial effects and fixed time-period effects is selected to be fit for the construction industry carbon emission intensity STIRPAT extended model and the data.The spillover results indicate that GDP per capita has a negative spillover effect and labor productivity of construction industry,electricity consumption ratio of construction industry,concrete consumption ratio of construction industry all have positive spillover effects.The regression results show that GDP per capita and concrete consumption ratio of construction industry have significant positive effects and labor productivity of construction industry,electricity consumption ratio of construction industry have negative effects on its provincial construction industry carbon emission intensity;the GDP per capita,construction industry gross production to provincial GDP ratio and the construction industry carbon emission intensity of neighboring provinces have significant negative effects and labor productivity of construction industry,concrete consumption ratio of construction industry have significant positive effects on the construction industry carbon emission intensity of a particular province.