Social Vulnerability Assessment In The Coastal Zone Of China

In the context of global climate change,natural disasters pose a serious threat to human survival and socio-economic development.Social vulnerability reflects the degree of damage that the regional social system may suffer in the face of natural disasters.China has a vast land area with complicated geographical and climatic conditions,various natural disasters occur frequently.As the interaction zone of ocean and terrestrial system,coastal zone is more sensitive to the climate change.In addition,coastal zone has the characteristics of high population density and concentrated resources,it may suffer more losses from natural disasters than other areas.Therefore,there is an urgent need for a scientific approach to assess the social vulnerability in the coastal zone of China,thereby providing technical support and accurate data reference for making strategic decisions on disaster prevention and reduction in coastal cities.At present,the social vulnerability researches mainly based on the administrative unit,which can show the social vulnerability differences between administrative units.However,there often exists some problems such as the low spatial resolution and the homogenized statistical data in the units,which can not reflect the spatial differences in the administrative unit.In this study,292 counties in the coastal zone of China were selected as the study area.The potential exposure spatial distribution in the coastal zone of China at grid level was developed by combining the night-time light data and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index.On the basis of principal component analysis,several population and socio-economic indicators were dimensionally reduced to a few independent principal components,then the social resilience in the coastal zone of China at county level was calculated by additive model.Finally,based on the positive effect of potential exposure and the negative effect of social resilience on social vulnerability,the spatial distribution of social vulnerability in the coastal zone of China in 2000 and 2010 was mapped at a resolution of 250 m.This study discussed the theoretical basis of social vulnerability assessment and built a social vulnerability assessment framework for the coastal zone of China.The main results are listed as follows:(1)On the basis of reviewing the domestic and foregin studies on social vulnerability assessment,with the theoretical guidance of Cutter's thought,this study argued that social vulnerability is the result of the combined effect of potential exposure and social resilience.Combined with the theoretical model of social vulnerability,we established a comprehensive social vulnerability assessment framework.The results of the assessment can provide more accurate and intuitive basic data support for developing economic strategies,regional planning,and natural disaster risk assessment,etc.(2)Based on the analysis of the spatial distribution of social vulnerability in the coastal zone of China,we found that the coastal areas with frequent human activities,such as Tianjin,the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta,always have a high level of socio-economic development.In the face of natural disasters,although the social system has enough resources to respond to post-disaster recovery efforts,the high level of population density and the high potential exposure will result in a significantly higher level of social vulnerability than other parts of the coastal area.(3)The study explored the dynamic changes of potential exposure,social resilience and social vulnerability by using the transition matrixs.The results showed that the overall level of social vulnerability and potential exposure in the coastal zone of China has increased from 2000 to 2010.The impacts of potential exposure and social resilience on social vulnerability have some spatial differences.