Research On Dynamic Comprehensive Risk Assessment Method Of Production Safety In Chemical Industry Park

The agglomeration of the chemical industry has become a new trend in the development of the chemical industry in China.The development of the chemical park is conducive to the optimization of regional chemical industry resources and the promotion of the sustainable development of the chemical industry and national economic development.However,it also led to production safety accidents such as fire,explosion,leakage,and poisoning.The State Council's" 13th Five-Year Plan for Safe Production " proposed that " regulating the requirements for the construction of chemical industry parks,we will conduct quantitative risk assessment in chemical parks and determine the risk level as The key to the long-term stable development of chemical parks."Chemical parks are in urgent need of strict safety planning and risk assessment in China.At present,research on risk assessment methods for chemical parks is still at an exploratory stage both at home and abroad.There is still a lack of research on dynamic comprehensive methods for risk assessment in China.This article takes this as the starting point of the research,summarizes the current status of risk assessment in chemical industry parks at home and abroad,analyzes and compares hazard identification methods in the regional risk assessment of chemical parks,and constructs quantitative risk assessment methods and models in chemical parks,using the FMEA method.The hazard analysis of the chemical park identified three variables of the model:accident probability,accident consequence,risk rescue factor,and taking into account risk dependency,Bayesian network technology was adopted to improve the quantitative risk assessment model in the chemical park,and the risk was updated.From the perspective of pre-story forecasting,this study builds on the quantitative risk assessment methods in the Chemical Industry Park and integrates inherent risk and law enforcement inspection data to determine the dynamic comprehensive risk of the chemical park.A dynamic supervision risk evaluation index system was constructed.Delphi method and AHP method were used to assign values to index systems and determine the index weights.A dynamic risk assessment model for chemical parks was constructed.Based on the research of the above methods,this topic describes the completeness of the investigation including chemical industry park field investigation,hazard analysis,accident scenario modeling,Bayesian network analysis,chemical industry accident probability calculation,chemical park accident severity analysis,and risk value calculation.The risk assessment process was applied in the Delingha Chemical Industrial Park.The risk value caused by failure of the LNG storage tank in the park was calculated.Based on the risk assessment results and the acceptable standards of individual risk in China,the LNG storage tank in the Delingha Chemical Industrial Park was obtained.The resulting risk exceeds the risk criteria of high-sensitivity regions.Therefore,in high-sensitive areas such as schools and hospitals,companies need to focus on supervision.The research results show that the dynamic comprehensive risk assessment method can be based on the analysis of city production safety risk prevention and control elements,and focus on the research and innovation of accident scene detection,urban production personal risk analysis and prevention technologies,etc.It includes"monitoring-prediction-response" for construction.The municipal production safety risk prevention and control system of the inter-set task system provides the foundation and support.