The Impact Of Carbon Emission Reduction Policy Based On Dynamic Cge Model On China's Economy And Environment

Due to rapid economic growth and a large population base,China has now become the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide.Although China's per capita carbon emissions are very low,at the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference,the Chinese government still made emission reduction commitments.To this end,China's“12th Five-Year Plan"(2011-2015)national economic and social development report announced that the proportion of non-fossil energy in the total primary energy consumption will increase to 11.4%,and that carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product would fall by 17%.However,the conditions at the national level have brought tremendous difficulties to China in achieving this goal.Moreover,the process of accelerating industrialization and urbanization in China is at a critical stage,and therefore requires a large amount of energy input.Therefore,it is very important for China to take effective measures to reduce fossil fuel consumption and carbon emissions in order to achieve emission reduction targets.This article focuses on the review of domestic and international research results on carbon taxes,border carbon tax adjustments,and carbon emissions trading policies,as well as the application of the CGE model in these three policies.First,the macroeconomic impact and environmental impact brought about by the implementation of a single policy are analyzed,and then the marginal abatement cost curve is introduced to analyze the abatement cost of a single emission reduction policy.Then the three carbon emission reduction policies and the corresponding sub-policies of carbon trading mechanism are compared and analyzed,focusing on the study of the effects of various emission reduction policies on the economic output,energy consumption,carbon emission reduction effectiveness,and abatement cost of China's macro and industrial sectors.To explore a cost-effective mitigation policy for China,this paper introduces the marginal abatement cost(MAC)curve to measure the effectiveness of a target policy in terms of mitigation cost.In the empirical study,the three popular mitigation policies,i.e.,ETS,carbon tax and BCA with different policy designs,are simulated and compared.Some interesting findings can be obtained.(1)Among mitigation policies,ETS appeared the most cost-effective in terms of the least mitigation cost,whereas BCA ranks the last.(2)Different ETS sub-policies,e.g.,carbon cap,permit allocation,penalty policy and subsidy policy,are thoroughly investigated to find the most cost-effective ETS design for China.(3)The carbon cap is observed to be the most sensitive sub-policy which should be carefully designed,and a tighter level will lead to a far larger emissions reduction cost under a given mitigation level.(4)Interestingly,the mitigation cost curve of penalty policy indicates a downward trend,in which a higher level of penalty price otherwise brings about a more effective mitigation effect and a lesser mitigation cost.Therefore,a penalty price somewhat above carbon price is strongly recommended to guarantee the mitigation effect of ETS without a too high mitigation cost.