Research On The Influencing Factors Of Carbon Emission Trading Market Equilibrium In China

Climate change is a major problem facing mankind and a major challenge facing the whole world.With the development of the industrial revolution,while the economy is growing rapidly,the environment is also under great pressure.From the signing of the Kyoto protocol in 1998 to the formation of the Paris peace treaty in 2015,all countries have shown great concern on this issue.To ease the pressure of climate change,the UN intergovernmental negotiating committee(ipcc)stipulated that developed countries should undertake emission reduction obligations from 2005 and developing countries from 2012,and proposed to do so by "market" means.The EU's carbon market(EU ETS),the first to be implemented and set up,has worked well.China is the largest developing country in the world.Its rapid economic development has also caused great harm to the environment.China has become the largest emitter in the world.Since 2011,relevant departments have been preparing for the deployment of the carbon market.First,two provinces and five cities,including Beijing and Shanghai,were approved as pilot carbon markets.In 2016,a national carbon market was proposed.In addition,China has pledged at international conferences to reduce its carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 60-65% in 2030 from 2005 levels and to peak in 2030.So in both realistic background,and in view of our country exists in the pilot stage of trading before each test markets run between the price difference is big,the problem such as volatile,in the process of the operation of the unified national carbon market,may exist arbitrage situation,which disturbed the market order,is not conducive to the healthy development of the market,so it is necessary for China's carbon emissions trading market policy factors affect how its operation situation,the market price and to study the influence degree,to ensure the effective operation and stability of the carbon market in the later can.This study compiled a social accounting matrix based on the 2017 national input-output table,and on this basis built a calculable general equilibrium model considering the carbon trading module,and applied GAMS software to solve the model.First,the base trading price of the national carbon market is calculated.Secondly,on the basis of the trading price in the base period of the national carbon market,this paper analyzes how the carbon emission reduction target,carbon tax levy,energy price and other factors affect the trading price of the carbon market and the degree of their influence.Finally,a new carbon trading module is introduced to analyze the carbon policy variables: the impact of free quota allocation ratio,quota allocation method,penalty process and subsidy rate on the carbon market trading price,as well as the impact on GDP loss and emission reduction rate.The results show that the trading price of the national carbon market remains at 34.0083 yuan/ton,which is consistent with the previous theoretical research results.National carbon trading market will be as carbon emissions constraints,a carbon tax increase,coal prices rise,oil and gas prices rise and fall,this is because the high target under the condition of constraints,a carbon tax increase,the enterprise of coal,oil,natural gas input key demand will decline to high emissions,carbon emissions will be reduced,the demand for carbon emissions will be reduced,thus market trading prices would fall;When the price of coal rises,enterprises will reduce their demand for it,and their carbon emissions will decrease.The demand for carbon emission rights will also decrease,and the trading price will decrease accordingly.The decrease of free allocation ratio,the way of emission allocation,the increase of penalty rate,the decrease of subsidy rate,etc.,will increase the trading price of carbon market,because these changes lead to the increase of carbon cost and cause greater loss of GDP,but carbon emissions will decrease instead.Based on the above analysis,the government needs to develop some clean energy alternatives to the dependence on fossil energy;On the basis of carbon trading,a reasonable carbon tax should be designed to avoid the drastic fluctuation of carbon market price.According to the different stages and objectives of the carbon exchange,the proportion of free quota allocation,the specific way of quota allocation,the penalty rate and the subsidy rate should be set reasonably,so as to seek a balance between low GDP loss and guaranteed emission reduction rate.