| Carbon emissions trading is one of the most effective market means to control greenhouse gas emissions.China,as a responsible developing country,launched the national unified carbon emission market at the end of 2017,and became the largest carbon trading country in the world.This paper takes the carbon price of carbon trading pilot as the research object,explores the relationship between carbon price and its influencing factors,and analyzes the dynamic characteristics of carbon price,which has certain significant reference for perfecting the unified carbon emission market in China.The contents of this paper are as follows :(1)Influence factors of carbon price analysis.Carbon prices are affected by four potential factors including energy prices,macroeconomic factors,weather factors and EU ETS carbon prices.Based on the cointegration model with structure breaks,the research shows that the time series of carbon price and influencing factors are firstorder single integral variables with structural breaks.The carbon prices in Guangzhou and Shanghai pilots have structural break under the influence of information disclosure in the carbon market.The break time of the carbon price in the remaining carbon pilots is related to the carbon quota performance period.Compared with the classical cointegration model,the cointegration model with structural break can better explain the relationship between carbon price and factors.Coal price is the dominant factor of carbon price.The positive or negative effect on carbon price of each pilot is closely related to the energy consumption structure.In addition to Shanghai pilot,the economic variable has a significant impact on carbon price of the remaining pilots.The positive or negative effect on carbon prices is closely related to the industrial structure.The error correction model shows that,the carbon price have the adjustment mechanism once it deviates from the long-term equilibrium,except for the price in Shanghai carbon market.It noteworthy that Shenzhen carbon market owns the fastest adjustment speed to the equilibrium.However,the revision rate of China's carbon market is slow,which is related to the incompleteness of carbon market system.In addition,the impulse response function shows that carbon price is greatly affected by itself and the coal price has a long-term lag on carbon price.(2)Dynamic characteristics of carbon price study.Based on the visibility graph method of complex networks,the price sequences of seven carbon markets in China are mapped to complex networks,and the dynamic characteristics of carbon price sequences are studied through the topology of complex networks.Except for Chongqing carbon market,carbon prices in the remaining carbon markets are all scale-free networks,which reflect that the carbon price sequence has fractal characteristics and the carbon market has certain complexity.By exploring the average path length of the network,all carbon markets have the characteristic of small world.Furthermore,the Jaccard coefficient of the visual graph is used to measure the similarity between carbon markets.Results show that the dynamic characteristics of carbon price markets in Tianjin and Chongqing carbon are identical,but the other carbon emissions markets are quite different.Finally,considering topological characteristics as clustering factors,the seven carbon emission markets are divided into three groups by using the systematic clustering method.The results reveal that Shanghai and Guangdong are groups with high level,while Chongqing and Tianjin are low level groups,and the other three carbon market are middle level groups. |
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