An Analysis Of Factors Affecting The Trading Price Of Carbon Quota In China's Carbon Market

In order to control the emission of greenhouse gases,the global carbon emission rights market trading system was gradually established after the Paris Agreement was signed.As one of the signatories of the Kyoto Protocol,and China formally joined the Paris Climate Change Agreement in September 2016,under such background,China is facing severe pressure to reduce carbon emissions.In order to fulfill China's commitment to reduce emissions to the international community,China has also gradually opened a pilot carbon emissions trading market since 2013.As a big country in carbon emission,the development of carbon emission trading market is of great significance to China's realization of " low carbon economy",the completion of emission reduction targets,the development of green finance and the promotion of supply-side structural reforms.Studying the factors that affect the trading price of carbon quota,the main trading variety in China's carbon emission trading market,has certain theoretical and practical significance for the stable development of China's carbon market and the further development of carbon financial products to form China's real carbon financial market.Firstly,this paper summarizes the development of carbon emission trading market at home and abroad,and combs the research literature on the influencing factors of carbon emission trading price at home and abroad.Secondly,the current situation of China's carbon emission trading market is analyzed,and the spot carbon quota,which is the main trading variety in China's pilot carbon emission trading market,is selected as the research object.Combined with relevant theoretical basis,the influencing factors and mechanism of carbon quota trading price are analyzed.Finally,GA-PSO-BP neural network is innovatively used to analyze the fitting degree between China's carbon quota price and its influencing factors,and it is concluded that there is a strong nonlinear correlation between the selected influencing factors and China's carbon quota price,which can highly fit the trend of carbon quota price.And the sensitivity analysis method is innovatively introduced to analyze the sensitivity of the input factors of the GA-PSO-BP neural network's empirical model of carbon quota price influencing factors,and the influence degree of each influencing index on carbon quota price is obtained.Based on this,relevant policy suggestions are put forward in combination with the current relevant problems in China's carbon market.The research in this paper finds that: firstly,the main influencing factors of China's carbon quota price include domestic and foreign macroeconomic environment factors,energy price factors,exchange rate factors and foreign carbon price factors,while there is no significant correlation between climate environment factors and China's carbon quota price;Second,there is a strong non-linear correlation between the influencing factors and the price of China's carbon quota.The index system established by these influencing factors can well fit the change trend of China's carbon quota price.Third,among the factors that affect the price of carbon quota,the domestic macro-economic factor is the most influential factor,followed by the energy price factor and the euro exchange rate.U.S.dollar exchange rate,foreign carbon price factors and foreign economy have relatively low influence on China's carbon quota price.According to the empirical and practical situation,China's carbon quota price is greatly affected by macroeconomy and energy prices,and there is no mature price formation mechanism of its own.There are also problems such as the marketization degree of carbon trading,low participation rate in the international market,insufficient market participants,etc.Therefore,in developing a lowcarbon economy and promoting the construction of a unified carbon emission trading market in China,we should focus on constructing a carbon emission trading market infrastructure system based on China's national conditions from the aspects of stabilizing the energy market and macro-economy,accelerating the internationalization of RMB,increasing market participation,enhancing the marketization of carbon trading,and accelerating the start-up of a unified carbon market.