Risk Prediction Of Enterprise Financing In Online Coal Supply Chain Based On Hydrological Model

The concept of “Internet+” has been integrated into the supply chain financial market and has become the best carrier for the transformation of supply chain finance itself with the development and progress of technologies such as e-commerce,cloud computing and internet of things.Supply chain finance has begun its online path and renewed its vitality.Through the coal supply chain finance on the connection,the coal supply chain has realized the online integration of “logistics-commercial flow-fund flow-information flow” under the e-commerce platform.It provides standardized,paperless,convenient,efficient,and low-cost financial services and improves the financing efficiency of coal trading companies.At present,the online coal supply chain financial market presents a vibrant scene,but at the same time there are some risk issues.This paper draws on the risk management theory in economics and the distributed hydrological model in hydrology,and proposes a set of online supply chain financing risk forecasting methods.Firstly,this paper sorts out related concepts of online supply chain finance and hydrological models at home and abroad.It also elaborates on the online supply chain finance,hydrological model,and quantitative analysis methods used in the model and It lays the foundation for the establishment of a model for predicting corporate financing risks in online coal supply chain based on hydrology model.Secondly,this paper constructs an index system for the financing risk of online coal supply chains and conducts hierarchical selection of indicator systems and Building a "hydrological database" for online supply chain financing risk prediction.Thirdly,build risk prediction models for “water circle,” “surface runoff,” and “underground runoff,” respectively.This paper uses the three methods of fuzzy comprehensive assessment,naive Bayes,and cusp mutations on the basis of the company's own current year(hydrosphere)risk prediction.From the breadth level(surface runoff)and the depth level(underground runoff),the risk discrimination is conducted separately.Finally,through empirical research,financial institutions integrate the analysis results and make financing decisions.The research results enrich the theory and method of online supply chain financing risk management,and provide financial institutions with practical suggestions and countermeasures for risk identification and control.