Policy Effect Measurement Of Environmental Regulation

The health risks and economic losses caused by air pollution cannot be ignored.This problem has become one of the shortcomings that hinder the comprehensive construction of a well-off society.According to the report of the National Environmental Analysis of the People's Republic of China issued by the Asian Development Bank and Tsinghua University,based on disease cost,the annual economic losses caused by air pollution in China are estimated to be equivalent to 1.2% of GDP,in which health losses take account of the largest proportion.Various domestic environmental regulation policies are released for this issue.From Beijing's “APEC Blue” to Hangzhou's “G20 Blue”,the short-term effectiveness of policies let us truly feel the practical significance of “clean water and green mountains”.How much improvement can the policies produce in a specific social,economic and natural context? Whether the improvement is sustainable and has a health effect.Constant researches are needed.In view of this,based on the data-driven idea,this paper studies the effects of environmental regulation policies with multiple treated units during G20 from a macroscopic and micro perspective.On the one hand,the short-term and long-term effects of environmental regulation policies with multiple treated units on air quality are identified based on synthetic control methods.The design and application of synthetic control methods are included.On the other hand,Analyze the indirect impact of policy based on the study of direct policy effects.Specifically,identifying the indirect health effects of environmental regulation policies based on regression-discontinuity designs,and applying the distributed lag non-linear model to analyze the relationship between pollutant concentrations and health,included health risks and costs.Conclusions as below:(1)Synthetic control method with multiple treated units has a lower RMSPE compared with single treated unit,and the robustness of the model was improved.The environmental regulation policies have a certain optimization on the comprehensive air quality index of Hangzhou and Zhejiang Province during 201607-201702.The absolute value of the monthly average effect is 0.98 and 0.84 respectively(p-value<0.05).In addition,the results show that there are some impacts on a large number of cities around Zhejiang Province during the G20 summit.The policy effects gradually disappear about half a year later.(2)The short-term effects of policies on air quality have a certain improvement effect on residents' health risks and health costs.At the breakpoint where the policy has a direct effect on air quality,the monthly total number of hospitalizations in the sample hospital decreased by approximately 17.274,and the average daily hospitalization expenses decreased by approximately ?8404.883.The impact on health risks was statistically significant at 95% confidence level,and the impact of policies on health costs is statistically significant at 90% confidence level.(3)Pollutants have delayed and cumulative effects on residents' health.Different pollutants and different degrees of pollution have different effects on residents' health risks and health costs.Health risks and health costs are similar under the influence of the same pollutants,but the fluctuations are not consistent.Taking PM2.5 as an example,its cumulative effect with three days lag on the hospitalization cost of the respiratory ward is 1.238,which is greater than the cumulative effect to the number of inpatient 1.183.This means that air pollution not only produces health costs by increased diseased individuals,but also affects health costs by affecting the health level.The main contributions: Firstly,the application of synthetic control method in the field of environmental regulation policy effect has been extended to the conditions of multiple treated units.Secondly,we combine the practical problems of this paper to rationally empower the disposal group when designing a synthetic control model with multiple treated units and the robustness is improved.Lastly,the results of the synthetic control method and the analysis of the micro data are combined to explore the relationship between environmental regulation policies,air quality,and residents' health in the context.