Evaluating The Potential Of Exporting Natural Gas In Tanzania

Recently,Tanzania has experience great volume of natural gas discoveries on its main land and its offshores too.Although oil and gas exploration in Tanzania is not new,the rapid pace of discoveries over the past few years has not been matched by the development of an adequate framework within which to govern this particular sector;both in the interest of Tanzania as well as the interests of international investors.This study aimed to evaluate the potential of exporting natural in Tanzania.On this evaluation the main focus was on the future demand for natural gas and to analyse the competitiveness of exporting natural gas from Tanzania.A dynamic econometric model Partial Adjustment Model(PAM)was used to understand the natural gas demand and to forecast the demand of natural gas from year 2016-2036.The results showed that there is a positive relationship between natural gas consumption,urban population,and electricity consumption per capita.However,there exist a negative relationship between natural gas consumption and the industry output value.The forecasts results were conducted into three scenarios high,base and low case scenario each case with a total estimated demand for natural gas to be 6.13 TCF,2.9 TCF and 0.789 TCF.The natural gas supply is estimated to be 40.07 TCF(holding the assumption that 70% of the total discoveries is recoverable).Tanzania competitive advantage strength mainly lies on the demand factors.In order to utilize its advantage Tanzania has to first strengthen its factor conditions and formulate the firm's strategies and structure to win the rivals in the market.