Research On The Calculation And Analysis Model Of Regional Ship Exhaust Emissions

In recent years,with ships becoming larger and the amount of ships increasing,the amount of exhaust emissions originating from ships also increases rapidly,which have caused enormous impacts on coastal population's health.It can be seen that the control and management of ship exhaust emissions have become quite urgent and necessary.Researching the calculation of ship exhaust emissions and establishing reliable emission inventories can provide important references for making emission mitigation measures.In this paper,starting from collection of ship activity data based on AIS(Automatic Identification System)and other ship databases,the establishment of regional ship emission inventories and visualization analyses are researched,and further application is made to research the mitigation of ship exhaust emissions,which can provide reliable references for the development of emission mitigation measures.In total,the main works of this paper are as follows:(1)Identification of ship navigation statuses based on AISIn this paper,identification of ships navigation statues is made based on the AIS information,then the exhaust emitting characteristics under different navigation statuses are analyzed,which has laid a foundation for the calculation of ship exhaust emissions under different navigation statues.The sailing statues are divided into cruising,maneuvering and decelerating.For the hoteling statuses,the identification model of mooring and berthing statuses is established.(2)Establishment of the calculation model of ship exhaust emissions considering the influences of wind,current and waveIn this paper,influences of the wind,current and wave factors in the ocean environment on the ship speed are mainly considered,modification is made to the data of speed over ground from AIS information to acquire the data of ship speed,then the calculation model considering the influences of the wind,current and wave is proposed based on the traditional calculation model.What's more,experiments are carried out to calculate the amount of exhaust emissions from certain voyages using the traditional model and modified model respectively,and the calculation results are compared to verify the effectiveness of the modified model.(3)Constructing the model of ship emission inventories establishment and visualization analysisThe analysis model of the ship exhaust emissions is established in this paper,on the one hand,statistics are made to the emissions data to further acquire the contribution rates based on the ship type,engine type and navigation statuses;on the other hand,visualization analyses including the spatial analysis,temporal analysis and analysis based on ship properties are made.Then Ningbo-Zhoushan port is taken as a case study to establish its emission inventory and make relevant visualization analyses,which can provide a more intuitive approach for further researches of ship exhaust emissions.(4)Construction of the system dynamics model for mitigation of ship exhaust emissionsMitigation of ship exhaust emissions is the further application of the calculation and analysis model of ship exhaust emissions.For the mitigation of ship exhaust emissions is a complicated systematic work,in this paper,SD(System Dynamics)method is used to make researches.Firstly,relevant factors influencing the regional ship exhaust emissions are analyzed and the model framework is designed.Then the relationships among all factors are described using the casual loop diagram and system flow diagram.Finally,the variation trends of ship exhaust emissions under different emission mitigation schemes are simulated using VENSIM.