Spatial And Temporal Characteristics Of Agricultural Carbon Emission And Its Influencing Factors In Shandong Province

Global climate warming is the most serious environmental problem facing human beings at present.It not only causes serious harm to the balance of ecological environment,but also threatens the survival and development of human beings.The increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is an important cause of global warming.Greenhouse gases mainly come from three major industries,among which carbon emissions from agricultural activities have become an important cause of accelerating climate warming.China is a big country in agriculture,to ensure food production,large quantities of agricultural materials such as chemical fertilizers,pesticides,and agricultural plastics are used.Today,the demand for carbon emission reductions has become increasingly strong,and the development of low-carbon agriculture is a matter of no delay.Shandong Province is a large agricultural province in eastern China,carbon emissions and environmental problems have become increasingly prominent,in order to achieve sustainable agricultural development in Shandong Province,it is important to solve the problems between agricultural development and carbon emissions.Therefore,measuring agricultural carbon emissions,analyzing carbon emissions status,and influencing factors have important practical significance for controlling agricultural carbon emissions.The article takes Shandong Province agriculture(planting,animal husbandry)as the research object,uses qualitative and quantitative analysis methods,and on the basis of combing relevant domestic and foreign literature,defines agricultural carbon sources,to determine the coefficient of carbon emissions,and from the land use,paddy fields,animal husbandry,straw burning four aspects to build agricultural carbon emissions measurement system,using the theory of the IPCC emissions calculation,measure the agricultural carbon emissions and carbon intensity of the provinces of Shandong Province in the period of 1998-2016 and the 17 cities in 2016,it explores the changes in time and its spatial differences,and the use of LMDI model analysis of the effects of agricultural production efficiency factors,agricultural structural factors,agricultural labor size factors,and agricultural economic development level factors on the impact of agricultural carbon emissions in Shandong Province.The main results are as follows:(1)The total agricultural carbon emission of Shandong province has shown an overall upward trend,increasing from 18.3183 million tons to 20.1142 million tons from year 1998 to 2016,with an average annual increase of 0.52%.According to its changing trend,it can be divided into four stages: "fluctuation rise-decline-slow recovery-slow decline";From the perspective of carbon intensity in agriculture,the intensity of carbon emission decreased from 1998 to 2016,from 1.016 t/104 yuan to 0.280 t/104 yuan,with an average annual decline of 6.91%.In 1998-2016,the proportion of carbon emission in the agricultural structure of Shandong province has always been: agricultural land use > straw to incinerate > livestock,> rice field.(2)In terms of space,the total agricultural carbon emission and carbon emission intensity of various cities in Shandong province in 2016 are significantly different from each other.The total amount of agricultural carbon emissions is the highest in Heze City(233.45×104t),the lowest in Laiwu City(13.75×104t),and the carbon emission in Heze City was 16.98 times that of Laiwu City.The total amount of agricultural carbon emissions in various regions of the city is higher in the western,southern and central regions,and lower in the central and western regions and the eastern region.The carbon emission intensity in Heze is the highest at 0.493t/104 yuan,which is 3.43 times that of the Laiwu City(0.144 t/104yuan),The carbon emission intensity was the highest in Heze City,which was 0.493t/104 yuan,which was 3.43 times that of Laiwu City(0.144 t/104yuan).It was spatially highest in the southwest,higher in the northwest and south central,and lower in the central and eastern regions.In general,it shows the distribution characteristics of the west high and low east.(3)According to the type of agricultural carbon emissions from 17 cities in Shandong Province,the differences are obvious.Heze City,Liaocheng City,Dezhou City,and Linyi City belong to the “high-high” type,areas with high total carbon emissions and high carbon emission intensity;Rizhao City,Dongying City and Binzhou City belong to “low-high” type areas with low total carbon emissions and high carbon emission intensity;Jining City and Weifang City are “high-low” types with high total carbon emissions and low carbon emission intensity;Laiwu City,Zibo City,Tai’an City,and Jinan City Zaozhuang City,Qingdao City,Weihai City and Yantai City belong to the “low-low” type areas with low carbon emissions and low carbon emission intensity.(4)The LMDI model was used to analyze the factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions in Shandong Province.The results showed that agricultural production efficiency factors,agricultural structural factors,and agricultural labor force scale factors inhibited the carbon emission of agriculture,and cumulatively achieved 26.5004 million tons,1.5735 million tons,and 5.0966 million tons carbon emission reductions respectively.Among them,the contribution rate of carbon emission reduction of production efficiency factor accounted for 79.92%,which became the main factor of agricultural carbon emission reduction.The economic development level factor is the main reason for the increase of agricultural carbon emission,The economic factors have cumulatively achieved an increase of 35.0065 million tons carbon.