Investment Decision Research On Carbon Capture,Utilization And Storage Technology Of Coal-fired Power Plant Under Uncertainty

In recent years,the extreme climate events and global warming caused by the greenhouse gas have now become the focus of public and government attention.In order to alleviate global warming problem.Around the world,governments launched a series of measures to reduce carbon emissions without affecting the energy demand and economic growth.Carbon capture,utilization and storage?Carbon Capture,Utilization and Storage,CCUS?technology is the best choice to reduce carbon emissions,which can reduce 31 percent of the total global carbon emissions under the situation of emission reduction in 2050.CCUS technology has great potential of emission reduction.Carbon emissions from coal-fired power plants has been more than half of the total carbon dioxide emissions,and coal-fired power plant shoulder heavy responsibilities to reduce carbon emission.But coal-fired power plants invest CCUS technology with a great risk and uncertainty,which should use suitable valuation methods--real options method to estimate value of investment project under uncertainty.First of all,this paper summarizes the traditional project investment valuation theory,expounds the commonly used and suitable investment decision-making methods under uncertainty,and then selects the suitable valuation method according to the investment characteristics of CCUS technology in coal-fired power plants.The application framework of CCUS technology investment in coal-fired power plants is given.And then analyze the uncertainty of main impact factors of CCUS technology in coal-fired power plant investment project,including the of carbon trading,price of CO₂,government subsidies and advance of CCUS technology.We construct investment decision-making model of coal-fired power plant CCUS technology investment project under uncertainty,and to determine the specific investment decision rules.According to the development current of coal-fired power plant industry,we choice supercritical PC?Pulverized Coal?coal-fired power plant as the base power plant.and collect parameters and basic data and then calculation data of benchmark power plant,and finally calculate the NPV,critical price and total project investment value under delayed real option method,and compares investment region of two methods.Finally analyzed the sensitivity analysis of the uncertain factors affecting the income of the project,and the corresponding policy suggestions are given.