Comparative Study On Price Fluctuation Of Carbon Emissions Trading Between China And The EU

This article analyzes the volatility characteristics and influencing factors of the selected pilot carbon trading prices in China and the EU,compares the similarities and differences between different markets,and proposes policy recommendations for China to launch a national carbon trading market.This paper include two parts.The first part is the study of EUA spot price movement.From the perspective of the movement characteristics it research EUA spot price time series,calculate three phase time series of the maximum LYAPUNOV Index to judge the existence of chaos movement,by phase space reconstruction we will get new multidimensional time series and use it as the input and output of wavelet neural network to improve the prediction effect of the network.The final test results show that the wavelet neural network based on phase space reconstruction can be used for the short-term reasonable prediction of the spot price of EUA.The second part is the study on price movement of regional pilot trading in China.Different market price of the nonlinear characteristics of the pilot computing its maximum LYAPUNOV Index to judge the chaos characteristics.And we judge the main reason of price fluctuation in order to put forward some suggestions to the construction of the exchange.