Traditional Energy Prices,International CER Price And China's Carbon Trading Price

The environment has a deep influence on the daily-life of human beings and the development of human society.The issue of environment plays a critical role in the process of seeking economic growth.China,as the world's biggest carbon emitter,has taken positively action in the carbon reduction.After the practice of seven carbon trading pilots in China,the national carbon emissions trading system was officially launched on December 19,2017.At the initial stage of national carbon emission trading system,the construction of price mechanism,the core issue in the whole process,is of great significance in improving the carbon trading system.Carbon trading prices are susceptible to a number of factors including regional,energy prices and international carbon trading markets.To ensure the stability of trading prices and the efficiency of trading markets,it is necessary to study the regular pattern of fluctuations of China's carbon trading prices.Paying attention to the influence caused by traditional energy prices and international CER price on China's carbon trading prices can provide a basis for the government to carry out macro-control measures and optimize the price mechanism of carbon trading market,which has strong practical significance.In this paper,the author aims to explore the effect of traditional energy prices and international CER price on China's carbon trading price.To achieve this aim,the author chose the traditional energy prices,international CER price and China's carbon trading prices as research objects.The transaction price data from June 30,2013 to June 30,2018 of the research objects would be used for empirical analysis.Firstly,the author would clarify the concepts,sort out the theories,and analyze the development status of the international carbon trading markets and China's carbon trading market.Secondly,the author would propose hypotheses,determine the model and carry out the empirical research design.In addition,in the empirical analysis part,the author would use the principal component analysis to reduce the dimensionality of the variables of the traditional energy prices and generate the traditional energy prices' total factor.Finally,the author would take the median effect test and regression analysis on the basis of the causal steps approach of mediating effect model.The empirical results show that:(1)the effect of traditional energy prices on China's carbon trading pilot carbon trading price can be divided into direct effect and indirect effect,which are expressed as positive direct effect,negative indirect effect and positive total effect;(2)There is a positive correlation between international CER price and China's carbon trading prices.Besides,the international CER price has a certain guiding effect on China's carbon trading prices;(3)China's carbon trading prices and international CER prices has quite a different reaction from the fluctuations of traditional energy prices.This reaction may result from that China's carbon trading market is still in its infancy stage,not achieving the status of fully market-oriented,and it's still weak in coping with risks and major events.The conclusions of this research would provide guidance for the construction of China's carbon trading market.Firstly,the problems of low trading activity and low liquidity in the carbon trading market and optimizing the mechanism of price formation should be solved as soon as possible.To better solved these issues,the government can take measures include accelerating the construction of carbon funds,improving the carbon fund platform to achieve information aggregation and circulation,and strengthening financial innovation.Secondly,the government should grasp the relationship between traditional energy prices and China's carbon trading prices,exert the macro-regulation of energy prices,and optimize the energy consumption structure.Thirdly,the improvement of China's carbon trading market and the promotion of price mechanism construction development should be done as soon as possible.