Impact Of Economic Growth And Energy Consumption On Carbon Emissions

Since the reform and opening up,China's economy maintains a state of rapid growth,but this extensive development model characterized by high input and high emissions has caused serious problems of environmental pollution and energy scarcity.Energy consumption will produce carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases,which seriously threaten the survival and development of human society.In order to deal with greenhouse gas emissions and global warming,the international community has held many global climate conferences,from the framework of climate governance system to the policy choices of countries to solve climate change problems,and has made a series of achievements.Under the background of climate governance globalization,it is very important to study the relationship among energy consumption,economic growth and carbon emissions in order to realize the sustainable economic development under the dual constraints of energy consumption and environmental pollution.In this paper,the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2016 are selected to study the impact of energy consumption and economic growth on carbon emissions by using quantile regression model.In order to better study the influencing factors of carbon emissions,in addition to selecting per capita GDP,energy consumption intensity,energy consumption structure as the core variables,but also the population size,urbanization level,industrial structure,The level of science and technology and the degree of trade openness are included in the model.This paper draws the following conclusions:(1)on the whole,from 2000 to 2016,the total amount of carbon emissions in China has been increasing year by year,with a growth rate of 6.99 tons,with an average annual carbon emission of 2.28 billion tons.Due to the increase of emission reduction,emission reduction awareness increased,carbon emissions growth rate slowed down.(2)the impact of economic growth and energy consumption on carbon emissions is significant.The economic development level has great influence on carbon emission,and the estimated value of regression coefficient is above 0.9.With the change of carbon emission condition distribution from low to high,the estimated value of regression coefficient decreases gradually.This means that the level of economic development has the greatest impact on low-carbon emission zones.The impact of energy on carbon emissions is measured in terms of energy consumption intensity and energy structure.The energy consumption intensity reflects the energy use efficiency,the estimated value of the regression coefficient is more than 1,and the influence of the energy consumption intensity on the carbon emissions is elastic.With the increase of the carbon emission level,the estimated value of the regression coefficient increases gradually.This means that energy intensity has a greater impact on high carbon zones.The energy structure has a weak positive effect on carbon emissions.(3)For the control variables,except for the industrial structure and the number of patent applications per capita,the coefficient estimates of the other variables are significant.The effect of population size on carbon emission is positive and significant.With the increase of quantile,the estimated value of coefficient increases first and then decreases,that is to say,the population size has the greatest influence on the middle carbon emission area.The urbanization level can promote the carbon emission,and from the estimation value of coefficient,it can promote the high carbon emission area the most.The degree of trade openness has a restraining effect on carbon emission level,therefore,the increase of trade openness will reduce carbon emissions.Based on the conclusion of this paper,some policy suggestions are given from the following four aspects:first,to improve the efficiency of energy use and to improve the structure of energy consumption.Second,change the mode of economic development,optimize the industrial structure.Third,give up the traditional urbanization development model and steadily promote the urbanization process.Fourth,perfect the policy mechanism,raise low carbon environmental protection consciousness.In this paper,panel data quantile regression model is used to study the impact of economic growth and energy consumption on carbon emissions.The innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)affected by the level of regional economic development,industrial structure and energy consumption structure,etc.There is regional heterogeneity in carbon emissions.In this paper,panel data is used instead of time series data,which not only increases the total number of observations,but also takes into account the differences of carbon emissions in different regions.(2)as an extension of ordinary regression,Quantile regression can more fully describe the distribution of carbon emissions.In this paper,the panel data quantile regression model is used to investigate the different effects of economic growth and energy consumption on carbon emissions under different carbon emission levels,and the estimated coefficients of each factor are given under different quantile levels.It provides some theoretical support for the development of carbon emission reduction policies in various regions.