Analysis Of CO₂ Emission Efficiency And Marginal Abatement Cost In China

In recent years,the increase in global temperatures brought about by the rapid growth of CO2 emissions has aroused the attention of all countries in the world and has taken effective measures to reduce the emissions of CO2.The calculation of CO2 emission efficiency and abatement cost can provide a reference for the formulation of emission reduction policies.Therefore,it has become a research hotspot for domestic and foreign scholars.As the world's largest emitter of CO2,China has committed to a 40%-45%reduction in carbon intensity in 2020 compared with 2005.In order to achieve this goal,improving the efficiency of CO2 emissions plays an important role.However,accurate measurement efficiency is an important and challenging task.The lack of a unified and effective model,ignoring the reasons for inefficiency,and ignoring the heterogeneity of the industry in the region are the main issues in current research.In addition,most existing researches only used one method to discuss regional and industrial marginal abatement costs,and almost no studies predicted future marginal abatement costs from the perspective of CO2 emission efficiency.This paper discusses CO2 emission efficiency and marginal abatement cost.Firstly,based on the three-level common frontier analysis method,this paper comprehensively estimates and decomposes the carbon emission efficiency and dynamic changes in different industries in China from 2005 to 2015.Secondly,we estimates marginal abatement costs of CO2 in three major industries of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2015 based on three non-parametric models.Then,based on the principle of fairness and efficiency,CO2 emissions are decomposed based on the 2020 emission reduction targets.And the marginal abatement costs of CO2 in all provinces in China in 2020 are estimated on the basis of the ZSG-C-DDF model,and compared with the marginal abatement costs of 2005 to 2015.The results show that(1)CO2 emission efficiency.China's overall CO2 emission efficiency is at a medium level with an average efficiency value of 0.513.Under various industries,the eastern region has the highest CO2 emission efficiency,followed by the central and western regions,and the lack of management efficiency is the main reason leading to inefficiency in the eastern region.In contrast,the technical efficiency of the central and western regions is relatively low;according to the inter-industry technology drop rate,the technology drop rate of secondary industry is the highest,and under the various industrial frontier,the technology drop rate in the eastern region is significantly higher than that in other regions;the technological progress of different industries in various regions has continued to advance,which has improved the efficiency of CO2 emissions to varying degrees.At the same time,according to the catch-up factors of different frontiers,the development of the primary industry has been seriously lagging behind the secondary and tertiary industries.(2)Marginal abatement costs of CO2.From 2005 to 2015,marginal abatement costs of CO2 in all provinces show a fluctuating upward trend;compared with the marginal abatement costs of primary industry or tertiary industry,most provinces have lower marginal abatement costs for secondary industry;and the average marginal abatement costs of CO2 for China in 2020 are 2766.882 Yuan/tonne for the 40%carbon intensity reduction target and 3334.836 Yuan/tonne for the 45%target,showing that the higher the emission reduction target,the higher the marginal abatement costs of CO2;Overall,the average marginal abatement costs of CO2 in China by 2020 are higher than those in 2005-2015.In short,this paper systematically analyzes the current status of CO2 emission efficiency and provides a powerful reference for decision makers.Compared with existing research,this paper expands from research models,indicator estimation and research data:(1)research models.Introduce regional industrial structure differences and build a three-level common frontier analysis method to measureCO2 emission efficiency.In addition,based on different models,the marginal abatement costs of CO2 in different industries and regions are measured,and compare the differences in analysis results.(2)Indicator estimation.Based on the ZSG-C-DDF model to allocate CO2 emissions in 2020,not only the maximum CO2 emission efficiency of each province is considered,but also the fairness of the distribution method is considered.(3)Research data:Calculate CO2 emission efficiency and marginal abatement cost using more detailed data samples.