Association Of International Carbon Emissions:Research On Network Structure And Conduction Paths Identification

The rising emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide have accelerated the pace of global warming,and extremely high temperatures are becoming more common in the new climate.Climate change has become a worldwide environmental problem and is having a profound impact on global ecosystems and socio-economic development.However,the current efforts of countries in international carbon emissions are not enough to achieve the goals set in the Paris Agreement,and the situation of curbing carbon emissions continues to rise is still very serious.The negative externalities of carbon emissions have made it impossible for individual countries to be independent in the process of global climate change.That is,carbon emission reduction requires the joint efforts of all countries in the world,and the research on carbon emissions should also be carried out from an international perspective.Moreover,carbon emissions are mainly caused by economic production activities,and controlling carbon emissions will inevitably hinder economic development.Under the influence of a series of major events such as the United States announced the withdrawal of the Paris Agreement,countries are worried about the impact of carbon emission reduction on their domestic economic development and employment growth,and the uncertainty in the process of international carbon emission reduction has increased.Therefore,from an international perspective,it is necessary to explore the structural characteristics of inter-country carbon emission associations and to study the interrelationship between economic development and carbon emissions among countries.First,based on the World Input-Output Database(WIOD),we specified the"economic output-carbon emissions" matrix in this paper to characterize the inter-country economic and carbon emissions links,and form the international carbon emission network;Then use the Social Network Analysis(SNA)method to determine the overall characteristics and national location effect of the carbon emission network,to reflect the characteristics of its network structure.And explore the correlation between national network characteristics indicators and their carbon emissions;Finally,from the perspective of network association,this paper use the Global Vector Auto-Regression(GVAR)method to study the conduction paths between economic development and carbon emissions among countries,which are analyzed from the impact of China's economic growth on other countries' carbon emissions and the impact of other countries' economic growth on China's carbon emissions two ways respectively.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:The analysis of the network structure characteristics of international carbon emission association shows that:(1)The carbon association among countries in the international carbon emission network presents typical network structure effects,and the network density,which reflects the closeness of carbon linkages between countries,generally shows an upward trend.(2)The developed economies have more input from other countries in the international carbon emission network to transfer carbon emissions from their production to other countries.The BRIC countries and the emerging economies have received carbon imports from developed countries while exporting products.(3)China has established a large number of production and carbon emission links with other countries through processing trade and other ways,and its central position in the international carbon emission network is very prominent.(4)The economic and carbon linkages received by countries in carbon emissions networks are negatively correlated with their carbon emissions,and the economic and carbon linkages issued are positively correlated with their total carbon emissions,which is consistent with the trend of product flow and carbon transfer between countries.The promotion of network centrality,that is,the increase of economic links and production links among countries,can promote the growth of carbon emissions.The research on the interaction between economic development and carbon emissions among countries shows that:(1)Under the shock of China's economic growth,the change of carbon emissions of representative economies except India show a inverted "U" shape characteristic,the import of intermediate products produced by China can cause two opposite kinds of effect,which are the carbon emission reduction effect and the carbon emission growth effect of stimulating the expansion of production scale,and the magnitude of the two kinds of effect determine the direction of carbon emission change in representative economies.(2)the economic growths of developed countries except Japan and BRIC countries have positive effects of inverted "U" type on China's carbon emissions while the economic outputs of emerging economies have negative impacts of "U" type on China's carbon emissions.The status of international industrial specialization and the structure of commodity exports are the main factors leading to differences in the impact on China's carbon emissions.The innovation of this paper is as follows:(1)Using network analysis methods to characterize the network structure of the international carbon emission matrix is not only an extension of the research methods in the international carbon emission field,but can also fully reflect the spatial correlation characteristics of carbon emissions among countries.(2)In the study of the conduction paths of carbon emissions by economic development among countries,the GVAR method is optimized,and the dynamic international carbon emission matrix is used,which is more in line with the changing carbon emission correlation characteristics among countries,and can effectively identify the conduction paths of carbon emissions by economic growth.(3)The impact of China's economic growth on representative countries' carbon emissions is less than the impact of representative countries'economic growth on China's carbon emissions.China's economic growth does not dominate the world's total carbon emissions growth.In the formulation of carbon emission reduction policies,we should establish a space concept,fully consider the characteristics of inter-country spatial association,emphasize collaborative governance,and pay attention to common interests;we should give full play to the positive role of international carbon emission network structure characteristics in carbon emission reduction policies.The carbon emission reduction of the US,China,Russia and EU economies at the core of the international carbon emission network is a way to effectively control international carbon emissions;developed countries should take the lead in reducing emissions and exporting emission reduction technologies,conducting emission reduction assistance,etc.to BRICS and emerging economies.And taking on more international responsibilities in responding to global climate change.