The Relationship Between American Energy Endowment And Real Dollar Exchange Rate

Energy endowment refers to all the energy possessed by a country.Abundant energy endowment is an important support for national economic development and technological progress,but it may also lead to the appreciation of domestic real exchange rate and industrial recession.Benefiting from mature shale oil and gas extraction technology,the United States has become the largest oil producer in the world,and its dependence on foreign energy has been decreasing.At the same time,the dollar index has also been strengthening.The fluctuation of the dollar exchange rate is not only a hidden danger for the smooth operation of the world economy,but also has a far-reaching impact on China's economic development.Based on this background,the research on the relationship between energy endowment and real exchange rate is of great practical significance.In this paper,the relationship between energy endowment and real exchange rate in different time scales is explored by taking the United States as the research object and using dollar index and per capita crude oil production as measurement indexes.Research method is adopted by the combining Multiresolution Analysis and Granger Causality Test method,The main research result is to further determine the relationship between energy endowment and the real exchange rate of the us dollar in different time scales on the basis of previous research,which serves as a reference for predicting the fluctuation of the us dollar exchange rate,and facilitates enterprises to avoid exchange rate risk and investors to make investment decisions.The innovation of this paper is that it adopts a new research method to study the relationship between energy endowment and real exchange rate.The two variables are usually presented in the form of time series,and the relationship between the two variables may also be different due to the different information contained in the time series in different time scales.The traditional econometric model is unable to carry out targeted research on this issue,and the multi-resolution analysis method has overcome this problem well.Wavelet transform can extract the information of time series in different time scales,and combining wavelet cross-correlation analysis with the traditional measurement method can effectively analyze the dynamic relationship between the two variables.This paper is divided into five chapters.The first chapter is the introduction,which describes the research background and significance of energy endowment and real exchange rate,summarizes the research content and ideas of this paper,and summarizes the innovation points and shortcomings of this paper.The second chapter reviews the existing literature on the relationship between energy endowment and real exchange rate through literature review,summarizes the theoretical models and empirical methods of energy endowment and real exchange rate,and points out the gaps and deficiencies in the current research.Chapter three introduces the transmission mechanism of the influence of energy endowment change on the real exchange rate.The fourth chapter is an empirical analysis,the principle of Wavelet Analysis method is briefly introduced,and the two time series are used for the Maximum Overlapping Discrete Wavelet Transform,Wavelet Correlation Analysis and Granger Causality test.The relationship between two time series in the same time scale and the influence of energy endowment change on the change of dollar index in different time scale are obtained.Chapter five summarizes the whole thesis.In this paper,the relationship between energy endowment and real exchange rate is studied through multi-resolution analysis method.It is concluded that energy endowment is a long-term factor affecting the exchange rate of us dollar,and the increase of energy endowment will lead to the strengthening of real exchange rate.In addition,the change of energy endowment will lead to the fluctuation of real exchange rate of us dollar in the medium and long term.