The Mechanism And Empirical Study Of The Influence Of International Oil Price Change On RMB Exchange Rate

Petroleum is an important industrial energy,known as the "blood of industry".Since the second world war,looking at the historical trend of international oil price fluctuations,every fluctuation will affect global economic development and stability.With the advancement of industrialization and urbanization in China,oil demand is large and external dependence is high.The fluctuation of international oil price will affect the industrial development and economic stability of China.Exchange rate plays an extremely important role in a country's foreign trade and foreign investment.With the advancement of RMB internationalization and exchange rate marketization,more and more attention has been paid to the influence of international oil price on RMB exchange rate.It is of great significance to study the influence of international oil price fluctuations on RMB exchange rate.First of all,this paper sorts out the influence paths of three international oil prices on RMB exchange rate,namely,economic growth,price level and international balance of payments.It believes that international oil price fluctuations will first affect household consumption,product cost and foreign trade,cause changes in these three variables,and then transmit to RMB exchange rate.Secondly,this paper uses in January 2010-July 2018,steady economic operation interval of the monthly data on economic growth,price level and the international balance of payments,the three variables to Sobel intermediary effect test,studies have shown that the three intermediary between international oil prices and the RMB exchange rate effect significantly,the intermediary effect of 20.17%,11.05%and 5.57%respectively,the mediation effect of economic growth is the most obvious.Again,this paper uses in July 1998-July 2018 monthly data,through the unit root test,co-integration analysis and Granger causality test,build VAR model and impulse response function model,the empirical analysis of the influence of international oil price fluctuation of RMB exchange rate,studies have shown that in the long term,international oil prices is a one-way Granger cause of the RMB exchange rate,negative correlation between them,the relationship between international oil prices rose 1%,0.02%depreciation of RMB exchange rate,international oil price fluctuations on the impact of the RMB exchange rate effect lasts approximately seven times,the empirical results of this article through the robustness test.Finally,based on the theoretical and empirical analysis results,this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions:first,increase the intensity and investment in new energy research and development,improve energy efficiency,adjust the industrial structure,and minimize the dependence on oil.Second,establish and improve the oil futures trading market,form the oil price system with China as the price place,compete for the international oil pricing power,and do our best to avoid the risk of oil price volatility.Third,promote the internationalization of the RMB,the market-oriented reform of the RMB exchange rate,gradually relax the capital account control,improve the ability to cope with international oil price fluctuations and other external shocks,so as to achieve the goal of stable and sound economic development.