The Impact Of Economic Development On Carbon Emissions:An Empirical Analysis On 30 Provinces Of China

A series of problems such as climate warming and deterioration of the ecological environment caused by the massive emissions of carbon dioxide have been the focus of the current international community.China surpassed the United States in 2006 to become the world's largest carbon emitter.After the Copenhagen Conference,China promised to reduce carbon intensity to 40% to 45% in 2005 by 2020.At the Paris Climate Change Conference,China proposed that carbon emissions peaked in 2030.There are differences in economic development and technological level among different regions in China.Studying the impact of economic development on carbon emissions in 30 provinces is of great significance for China's goal of achieving carbon emission reduction and balancing the relationship between economic development and environmental quality..This paper first analyzes the economic and social development,energy consumption and carbon emissions of 30 provinces.This paper selects the data of real GDP,energy consumption and carbon emissions in 30 provinces from 1995 to 2016,and studies the impact of economic development on carbon emissions in various provinces.Firstly,the ADF unit root test and the Johansen cointegration test on the time series data of each province prove that there is a cointegration relationship between the stationarity of the time series and the time series.Subsequently,the VAR model was constructed and the impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis were carried out.The effects of economic development on carbon emissions and the contribution of carbon emissions were analyzed.The following conclusions were drawn:(1)In the long run,most provinces The city's carbon emissions(except Beijing,Hebei and Hainan)will increase with the improvement of economic development level.Beijing,Hebei and Hainan will cause carbon emissions to decrease in the long-term economic development.(2)Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin and other high economic development levels and Guizhou,Gansu,Sichuan and other 12 provinces with relatively poor economic development level,economic development and energy consumption have less impact on carbon emissions,other factors lead to carbon Emissions have the greatest contribution,with an average contribution of 73.5%.(3)11 provinces with medium economic development level such as Jilin,Chongqing and Hubei,the economic development level has the greatest impact on carbon emissions,with an average contribution of 58.8%.(4)Eight provinces relying on energy consumption,such as Shanxi,Shandong and Inner Mongolia,have the greatest impact on carbon emissions,with an average contribution of 69.8%.Finally,it provides countermeasures for the coordinated development of carbon emissions and economic development in various provinces in China.