Study On The Influence Factors Of Transportation Energy Consumption Based On IPAC-SGM Model

Transportation-related activities will cause a large amount of energy consumption,and will further cause various problems such as energy crisis,environmental pollution and excessive greenhouse gas emissions.Traffic energy simulation has become an important constraint for energy economic simulation and development.In China,the transportation industry is in a stage of rapid development,and its development has national policy support,but it also has many factors.Therefore,studying the influencing factors of energy consumption in the transportation industry is of great significance for analyzing the development trend of the transportation industry and for optimizing and formulating the policies of the existing transportation industry in China.Based on the analysis of the current situation of energy consumption gro.wth in the transportation industry and transportation industry,this paper analyzes the problems existing in transportation development and analyzes the influencing factors affecting the development of low energy consumption.Through the construction of the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL)model,the interaction between technical influencing factors,management influencing factors,industrial influencing factors and transportation structure is analyzed.By comparing the advantages and limitations of the general equilibrium model(CGE)in transportation research,this paper builds the IPAC-SGM model based on the principle of Computable General Equilibrium(CGE),and applies the IPAC-SGM model to analyze the national economy and The interaction between transportation energy consumption.In this paper,2012 is used as the base year to study the development and impact of transportation within 30 years,and scenario analysis is carried out through scenario setting to study the trend of energy consumption.The first chapter first expounds the background and significance of this paper.Based on the requirements of intermational environmental protection and China's low-carbon economy development,we will grasp the development trend of transportation energy consumption and provide a basis for the formulation of energy conservation and emission reduction policies for the transportation industry.The application of the DEMATEL model and the theory of general equilibrium model is reviewed.The combination of literature research,theoretical analysis,model simulation and case analysis is used.The innovation of this paper is to use the DEMATEL model to quantitatively analyze the influencing factors,and use IPAC-SGM to analyze the transportation industry in the large system of national economic development.The second chapter analyzes the development status of the transportation industry and the current situation of transportation energy consumption,and discusses the main problems of rapid growth of demand,unreasonable structure and low energy consumption efficiency in the development of low energy consumption in transportation.The main management factors a ffecting energy consumption are analyzed to provide a theoretical basis for the establishment of the later model.The third chapter first constructs the index system of the factors affecting the growth of transportation energy consumption and briefly analyzes it.Then the principle and solution of the DEMATEL model are introduced.By constructing the DENATEL model,the correlation between the eight influencing factors in the transportation low-carbon system is identified and analyzed.The fourth chapter is the construction process of IPAC-SGM model.The modeling principle of the IPAC-SGM model,the structure of the IPAC-SGM model,the solution steps of the IPAC-SGM model,and the basic data required are introduced.In view of the characteristics of the transportation industry,the transportation industry is further divided into the sub-molecular departments of passengers and freight transportation according to the transportation mode,and the IPAC-SGM model is constructed on this basis.Based on the 2012 input-output table as the basic data,the compilation of the Social Accounting Matrix(SAM)required for the IPAC-SGM model was completed.The fifth chapter sets three development scenarios of carbon tax based on the established IPAC-SGM model and analyzes the results.Set different conditions of future carbon tax and different situations of energy consumption,and identify the influence law of influencing factors in different situations.The sixth chapter is policy discussion.Based on the previous analysis of the model results,recommendations are made for existing policies.