Research On Medium And Long-term Demand Forecast Of Copper Resources In The Countries Along The Belt And Road Initiative

This paper analyzes and studies the economic and social conditions of the countries along the “Belt and Road” and the distribution of copper resources,and deeply grasps the supply and demand pattern and historical evolution of global copper resources,and comprehensively applies the mineral resources demand of the Global Mineral Resources Strategy Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences.The predicted "S" shape model and the BP neural network model are two methods.The demand for copper resources in the countries along the "Belt and Road" will be analyzed and predicted according to the total demand,typical countries and different regions.According to the prediction results of the “S” model,the total demand for copper resources in the countries along the “Belt and Road” will continue to increase in the future by 2025,and will reach a peak around 2025,with a total volume of 21.8 million tons.However,as the demand for copper resources in China reached its peak and began to decline in 2025,the overall copper demand in the countries along the “Belt and Road” declined slightly.Then,due to the rapid growth of copper demand in countries such as India and Turkey,the total copper demand along the “Belt and Road” region The amount is rising again.The prediction results of different regions show that South Asia and Southeast Asia are regions with great potential for future demand for copper resources.The research conclusions provide scientific support for the development of China's copper industry and resource-based enterprises based on domestic and global,carrying out overseas investment and resource allocation,and actively participating in international competition.BP neural network prediction results show that China's copper resource demand will peak in 2035,about 18.29 million tons,after the demand tends to be flat;India's copper resource demand continues to grow rapidly from 1970 to 2040,copper resource demand in 2040 It reached 3.14 million tons;the demand for copper in Russia and Turkey will continue to grow in the next 20 years.However,the peak total is lower than the "S" model prediction result,and the expected peak time also lags behind the "S" model prediction time limit.Most countries along the “Belt and Road” countries are in the period of rapid industrialization.With China as the representative,countries and regions along the “Belt and Road” have become global copper resource demand centers.The “Belt and Road” countries and regions have less than one-fifth of the world's total copper reserves,and the distribution of resources is extremely uneven.The main production and supply countries of copper resources are separated from each other,and the future demand is in a differential pattern.The potential of copper resources in countries and regions along the “Belt and Road” is huge.“Cooperative development,mutual benefit and win-win” is the main direction for the evolution of resource supply and demand patterns in countries and regions along the “Belt and Road”.The “Belt and Road” initiative proposed and implemented by the Chinese government is in line with the common needs of countries along the route,providing a new platform for complementary,open development and international cooperation along the line.