| With the continuous growth of population and the rapid development of economy,the consumption and demand of energy are increasing gradually.Consequently,the contradiction between energy supply and demand is becoming more and more prominent.At the same time,the production,processing and conversion of traditional fossil energy will not only produce a large amount of CO2 and air pollutants,but also consume a large amount of water,which has caused serious environmental damage and aggravated the shortage of global water resources.The development and utilization of renewable energy can effectively alleviate the above problems,thus attractting wide attention for renewable energy around the world.Currently,China’s energy consumption structure is dominated by coal,and the proportion of renewable energy consumption is relatively low.A series of resource and environment problems caused by unreasonable energy structure also hinder China’s social and economic development.Therefore,the scientific energy system planning has become a top priority.By vigorously developing renewable energy,reducing the consumption of coal and water resources,and optimizing the allocation of energy resources,a coordinated development of economy,resources and environment can be achieved.There are many uncertainties and complexities exsiting in energy systems,resulting in some challenges in energy systems planning.This study deeply discriminated the characteristics of Zhuhai energy system.Based on the considerations of renewable energy utilization,environmental protection and water resources management,the energy system and power system planning models have been established for the city of Zhuhai.Multiple optimization methods are integrated to handle the uncertainties and complexities therein.Specifically the thesis includes:(1)Two policy scenarios are set according to different planning objectives.Scenario 1 establishes an interval mixed-integer fractional programming model based on the coordinated development of economy and environment,which encourages the development of renewable energy to maximize the use of renewable energy at unit system cost.Scenario 2 establishes an interval mixed-integer programming model to minimize system cost from the perspective of economy.The results of the models can provide two energy planning schemes for the city of Zhuhai.Through the comprehensive analysis of energy supply,power production and expansion,CO2 and pollutant emission,system cost and efficiency,it is found that scenario 1 can promote the development and utilization of renewable energy,which is contribute to the sustainable development of economy and environment in Zhuhai.Scenario 2 is more economical which could minimize the costs of Zhuhai’s energy systems.The relevant decision-making department in Zhuhai can balance the relationship between economy and environment according to the actual situation and select the optimal energy planning scheme.(2)An interval chance-constrained fractional programming model based on water resources management is developed for Zhuhai power system planning.Compared with thermal power generation,renewable energy consumes less water,so the goal of the model is to maximize the utilization of renewable energy per unit system cost.Meanwhile,various default levels of water resources constraints are set,and the impacts of different water resource restrictions on Zhuhai’s power supply,CO2 and pollutant emission,system cost and efficiency are also investigated.The planning scheme generated is conducive to the coordinated development of Zhuhai’s economy,resources and environment,and it will provide scientific suggestion and guidance for the decision-making department in Zhuhai. |
